The below is being floated as a potential redistricting map for Missouri:
I’ll summarize the changes as follows: Missouri loses a district, thanks to the 2010 Census. On the Republican side, Vicki Hartzler is liking this map least: she had some R areas taken away from her and given to Emanuel Cleaver, and has been given some D areas from Luetkemeyer. On the other hand, on the Democratic side Cleaver’s district is now somewhat less urban. This is not necessarily a disaster for Cleaver: he’s that rarity, a Democratic African-American that white Democrats will vote for anyway. But the really nice news? Russ Carnahan’s district was chopped up like a chicken for the stewpot: half of it went to Jo Ann Emerson (who didn’t break a sweat winning last year with 65% of the vote) and the rest looks like it’s in William Clay’s (majority-minority). Bottom line: I am not an expert on Missouri county vote totals, but it looks like Missouri’s going to go from 6R/3D to 6R/2D.
As it happens, both Russ Carnahan and his sister Robin (current Secretary of State) are technically up for reelection in 2012. I note “technically” because Russ doesn’t have anywhere to go except his boat, and Robin’s political future was recently and entertainingly tarnished by her inept loss in the 2010 Senate elections. It’s likely that she’ll have a tough reelection fight for Secretary of State; and while Senator Claire “SELL THE JET!” McCaskill and Governor Jay Nixon both look weaker than one might expect, knocking them off in a primary in 2012 might be a bit of a slog. Particularly since the Democratic Party of Missouri is going to be in full firewall mode at that point.
So, all in all: good times, good times. Russ Carnahan is on an old list of mine, you see: and with him gone the only ones left will be the race-baiter and the anti-Semite.
Moe Lane (crosspost)