If I was a Democratic strategist, these Gallup poll crosstabs would be giving me conniptions, fits, and the galloping staggers:
But it could be.
Long-range plans differ btw Rs and Ds: 81% of Reps say they’ll definitely vote in November. 68% of Dems say that in new @cbsnewspoll
— Anthony Salvanto (@SalvantoCBS) March 26, 2014
— Doug Stewart (@zamoose) March 25, 2014
Your daily dose of Democrats eating their own*:
‘Downton Abbey’ Democrats May Cost their Party the Senate
When it comes to green gentry liberalism, think of an Americanized version of the PBS hit—where everyone knows his or her place, and our betters look best.
Last week was a good week for natural gas, but a bad one for green gentry liberalism. John Podesta, a veteran of the Clinton White House who is once again a presidential adviser, tried to explain some energy facts of life to the true-believing liberal base. Still, it’s unclear if Podesta’s intended audience was listening, and that willful blindness may cost the Democrats control of the Senate.
Remember how, from 2001 to 2006 or so, the Democrats kept screaming about “chickenhawking?” – Oh, yes, the Left has been re-purposing homophobic slurs for some time: they used that term to attack anybody who supported the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, but did not actually serve. It went nowhere, of course: your average anti-war type not only does not understand the concepts of ‘democracy’ and ‘America;’ he can’t actually spell them* – but it was nonetheless a phenomenon. To the point where John Kerry spent the 2004 election apparently answering every question with a reminder that, hey, he served in Vietnam. Crazy, I know, but that was the thing then.
And what’s the thing now? Declaring that war veterans are out of touch with America and shouldn’t run for office. (more…)
(H/T: AoSHQ) The two were Mike Parrish in PA-06 (Lean Republican) and Buffie McFadyen in CO-0 (Safe Republican). Of the two, obviously Parrish is the more disappointing news for Democrats… but it’s interesting to note that ‘R+5′ is apparently enough to be effectively out of the realm of possibility for Democrats this cycle anyway. I remember a time when it was not, and that time was 2006 and 2008.
I know, I know, it’s vaguely minor news and everything. But if you’re wondering why people are making certain assumptions about the 2014 election cycle, it’s because of stories like these. You look at who is running, who is retiring, who is staying out of races, who is jumping in… money, too, of course, but money tends to get cancelled out by other money. In the end, the people running are the biggest part of this picture. To mangle Machiavelli… gold may not get you good candidates, but good candidates can always get you gold. (more…)
Markos Moulitsas apparently wishes to lead the movers of garbage out on strike for better working conditions*.
In a remarkable post [link removed**] yesterday, Moulitsas, founder and publisher of the progressive community site DailyKos, celebrates the departure from the Senate of 10 moderate Democrats over the last decade, and makes clear his hope that Senators Mark Pryor (D-Ark.) and Mary Landrieu (D-La.) lose their tough reelection battles this year. He doesn’t name some other moderates in tight races, like Mark Begich (D-Alaska) and Kay Hagan (D-N.C.), but his logic suggests that he’d be only too happy to say goodbye to them as well.
Strictly speaking, I am not criticizing the Fix for not drawing a more explicit link between Presidential approval ratings and Senate churn in a midterm election. They established the basic point, which was that both parties are increasingly taking seriously that the President’s current low numbers will translate into Democratic losses in the Senate. The Monkey Cage spells it out:
Presidential approval is strongly correlated with midterm congressional election outcomes. Gallup has polled Americans on presidential approval during every midterm election cycle since 1954. Across the 16 midterm election cycles from 1954 through 2012 the average level of presidential approval during the first quarter (January to March) of the election year is about 58 percent. Over the available Gallup presidential approval polls for the first quarter of this year, Obama’s approval is significantly below the average, about 42 percent, worse than every other year except 2006 and 1974.
That’s not really a rhetorical question.
You see, based on the above video* it’s very much an open question whether the Democratic party does understand that every single damfool thing that a liberal or Democrat says in front of a camera will get captured somewhere and then end up on a social media site dedicated to the mass distribution of entertaining, interesting, or topical video footage. If that observation didn’t compute, try this one: you know how the media loves them some Republicans/Conservatives Acting Badly footage, and will lovingly keep archives of same in reserve for just the right occasion? – Well, guess what! Technology has advanced to the point where anybody can do that, including people who do not like Democrats or liberals.
Some Democrats, and their supporters in the press, will probably argue that not all those who say they or a family member have been negatively affected by Obamacare have actually suffered any ill effect. Maybe that’s true, for some. But telling voters they’re wrong is not a particularly effective electoral strategy.
Well… it’s actually a very effective one. For the other side.
Three things to take away from this ‘talkathon’ on global warming planned for tonight by Senate Democrats:
- Indeed, do not call it a ‘filibuster.’ Strictly speaking, the last one of those we had was from Rand Paul. This will be more like Ted Cruz’s Obamacare session, except that there will be more individuals involved (largely because the Democrats do not have a single Senator that can match the rhetorical skills of Ted Cruz, let alone duplicate his stamina).
- I betcha none of these people will take questions. Like the one about why all the climate models have been increasingly at odds with observed data for about the last, oh, twenty years or so*.
- And this says it all, really: “Democrats have 28 senators scheduled to speak through Monday night, but some of the party’s most vulnerable senators facing re-election this year—Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, Mark Pryor of Arkansas, Kay Hagan of North Carolina—are notably missing from the lineup.”
Fascinating Politico article here about Joe Biden and his desire to run in 2016. Here is the basic problem, in a nutshell: Hillary Clinton is more or less qualified to be President* – or, at least, the Democratic nominee for President – but she is a horrible campaigner and nobody likes her. People like Joe Biden, and he is better at the entire campaigning thing. However: by the time 2016 rolls around “close to the Obama administration” is not going to be a selling point in the general election… and while both Clinton and Biden severely suffer from that problem, Biden suffers from it a heck of a lot more. (more…)