No, really, it’s too early for DOOM.
30% chance of rain and 100% chance of 40,000 empty seats force Obama to move his speech to arena.
— Phil Kerpen (@kerpen) September 5, 2012
IT IS TOO EARLY FOR DOOM. We can still lose.
22 thoughts on “#rsrh QotD, It’s Too Early For DOOM edition.”
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Mr. Nate Silver still gives Pres. Obama a 75% chance of winning. . . . with a 62% chance of winning Florida, a 71% chance of winning Virginia, and a 72% chance of winning Ohio. I think Nate Silver should have stuck to baseball.
Nate Silver’s particular skill is in telling people what they want to hear, with math added on.
This all has a VERY 2004 feel for me. The left was incredulous at the possibility that “Fahrenheit 911” star GWB could possibly be re-elected. He’d failed by every metric THEY deemed important. Basically EVERY fact on the ground is different this time, but that hinky feeling that this guy is so close despite — everything really — is very real. I mean, if independents aren’t convinced yet… I’m sort of steeling myself for an Obama win — realizing full well that it means that America has jumped the shark. If it happens, I plan to exhale and enjoy the ride downhill as much as possible. Life is short.
As I said on Facebook yesterday, Silver is insightful at times but engages in more hand-waving than a Fosse production at your local community theater.
I thought his skill was finding the precise spot in which to stand in order to see a beautiful Data Butterfly rather than an onrushing Zerg, so as not to frighten his audience?
Really thought that they would have loaded up the buses to fill that stadium. No matter how you spin it, the optics of moving the speech look bad.
Nate’s an excellent analyst as long as the race is Democrat to Democrat or Republican to Republican…in the general – he lets confirmation bias slip in too much or he doesn’t want to risk his liberal audience revolting – it could be either.
Speaking of which, Moe I think Sean Trende at least is owed a little ribbing from Moe Lane….
I am really uncomfortable with the Lack of Romney bounce and Was shocked to read John Avlon’s article on Obamacons for The Daily Beast (yes it is a lib rag), but I can’t help but feel I am missing something.
earlgrey – there aren’t a lot of undecided people out there to bounce but those are breaking to Romney which is a natural progression.
@Spegen – bad optics only happens to Republicans. Headlines after Obama’s speech: “Obama inspires overflow crowd!” – it wouldn’t matter if he was speaking in a local Denny’s.
Earlgrey, the no-bounce is a lie. (so is the cake).
To produce the no-bounce requires sliding some of the percentages around to silly levels……but they just show the results, knowing only statistics wonks go look at the internals.
The media want a close race, so that’s what they are reporting. Believe at peril of your hope.
Mew
I’m worried about that Evan Thomas 15% and the 2% cheating factor being decisive.
Well, I guess on some level, I would like a close race too, as long as we win. Actually, I want a surprise R victory. But I get more joy than I should from the SHOCK, DISBELIEF and TEARS from liberals. Then I want O forcibly drug, screaming, from the oval office as the media collapse in gasping sobs….is this too much to ask?
“I am really uncomfortable with the Lack of Romney bounce and Was shocked to read John Avlon’s article on Obamacons for The Daily Beast (yes it is a lib rag), but I can’t help but feel I am missing something.”
The PsyOps is thick and heavy at this time.
Remember at this time in 2004, CBS laid their draft-dodger story on the table, and the blogosphere spit it out.
I see the same thing now: Liberal media talk up Democrats, but the people are not buying it… biased headline slobbering over Michelle but comments are 2-1 against Obama …
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/michelle-obama-speech-wows-critics-lights-twitter-141131431–election.html?_esi=1
What did she say about the $500 million invested by her husband in Solyndra?
Is hope and change going to cost us another 6 trillion?
SOMEONE NEEDS TO TWEET THIS:
“Poor President Obama.
If he gets re-elected, Look at the mess he’s going inherit”
David Brooks looked like he was twitterpated after Michelle’s speech but after a few minutes he was able to recover himself enough to get out that the D’s failed to mention the economy or debt at all last night.
My sense is that things are far worse for the Dems then the media is letting on. At least that’s my read on the despondency of the political press. They realize they aren’t moving the political needle at all, that both sides are pretty much locked in and there isn’t much chance of a late inning rally for O’Bama. O’Bama needs the low information voters to come out ’cause they will vote for him but they probably won’t bother showing up.
I think that’s a part of it, Catseye. Without History manning the phones, much of the Obama ’08 energy is .. gone with his promises.
Yet another reason why this cat opposes the universal franchise… there should be an “awareness” test to vote. (if you can’t be bothered to learn who your current Senator is, you don’t get to help pick the new one!)
Mew
@acat – I’d be happy with people having to display a US Passport or Voter ID card at this point.
@jetty – I have this evil little proposal…
The IRS, who *already know* who is and isn’t a citizen, what your age and legal address are, etc. will send back, to everyone who files a 1040 (including 1040ez) a “polling place access ticket”.
This ticket should be just a slip of plain paper with the name and address of the taxpayer, and a unique QR Code. It can be something fancier, but it doesn’t need to be.
Every polling place gets a black box QR scanner that does nothing but scan these slips and report every QR used. In realtime. Via cellular network. Every polling place gets told “nobody gets in without scanning their taxpayer slip”.
It’s deliberately easily forged, though … just use any photocopier, or scanner-and-printer, but .. the QR code is unique to each taxpayer.
There’s no reason to go after the taxpayers, though .. they can just claim “mail stolen, never received”, very hard to prosecute. Instead, the polling place gets some changes.
Next election, law enforcement officials will be assigned to check photo IDs as well as access tickets at any polling place that shows a significant (greater than .. 1%?) number of fraudulent QC codes being used.
Mew
Yes, yes, this same time in 2010, the Democrat Media was fully head in sand about the upcoming Republican wave.
Don’t get cocky.