Tag: 2014

Washington Post: expect Republican gains in the House, but no wave.

(H/t: Hot Air Headlines) This is actually lining up with my expectations:

Prognostications about the upcoming midterm election are coming fast and furious.  The bullishness about the Democrats’ prospects, so frequently expressed (and exaggerated) during the government shutdown, is gone.  Current forecasts typically range from “a midterm headache for Democrats” to possibly even another Republican wave.  But at this moment, what’s most likely is something less dramatic, at least as far as the House of Representatives is concerned. An early version of this blog’s forecasting model suggests that there will be only a small shift in House seats in 2014 — one more likely to advantage Republicans than Democrats, but one that will fall far short of a wave.

…and if you think about it you’ll see why.  In 2006 and 2008 the Democrats more or less eliminated every at-risk Republican in the House of Representatives.  In 2010 we returned the favor, and then some.  In 2012 the redistricting wars shook loose some seats on both sides.  Continue reading Washington Post: expect Republican gains in the House, but no wave.

The Plum Line is officially alarmed that the GOP will win in 2014/2016.

Skip the rest of the article – it’s largely that marvelous combination of sneer/whine that typifies Beltway punditry when things aren’t going their way – and note this:

It is likely, then, that Ginsburg and Breyer will only be replaced by similar mainstream liberals if there is unified Democratic control of the White House and the Senate.

Basically, The Plum Line is trying to convince those two Supreme Court Justices to retire now for the benefit of the cause, and hopefully be replaced by young liberal Justices who will hang on for twenty years.  Which is precisely the sort of thing that one does when one is uncertain that one’s Senatorial majority will last beyond… well, effectively, September 2014. If a Supreme Court vacancy happens after that there’s darn little chance that it’d be taken up before before January 2015 anyway. Continue reading The Plum Line is officially alarmed that the GOP will win in 2014/2016.

Gov. Lincoln Chafee (D) cuts and runs.

And so the cycle is complete.

Gov. Lincoln Chafee isn’t running for a second term, he said Wednesday in an announcement that surprised his political opponents and closest advisers alike and takes him out of what was expected to be a fierce primary in his new Democratic Party.

The governor, who became a Democrat in May, has struggled with poor approval ratings and is a reluctant fundraiser, who faced a strong field of challengers in next year’s race.

From Republican Senator to ‘Independent’ governor to Democratic has-been.  Have a nice life, Chafee. Continue reading Gov. Lincoln Chafee (D) cuts and runs.

Evergreen title: “The rumors of the GOP’s demise have been greatly exaggerated.”

I’m going to use a bit of Sean’s quote here, because I know that he’ll forgive me:

The story buried by the national media’s fixation with Hillary Clinton’s next move is the solid bench that Republicans have been efficiently building – not just in Democrat-blue Pennsylvania, but across the country – since her husband left office in 2000.

[snip]

“The presidency is one election, and Democrats and Republicans have basically been alternating it for the better part of a decade now,” said Sean Trende, elections analyst at RealClearPolitics. “But it is the GOP that is ascendant down-ballot.”

Trende explains that, in 2010, Republicans won around 54 percent of state house and senate seats nationally; the number fell slightly in 2012, to 53 percent of state senate and 52 percent of state house seats.

“Part of the disparity comes from the fact that not all the state senate seats were up in 2012,” he said. “But overall, Democrats pay the same penalty in state legislative districts that they pay in congressional districts” – their coalition has become too geographically concentrated to function well in legislative races.

Continue reading Evergreen title: “The rumors of the GOP’s demise have been greatly exaggerated.”

For the ‘Dice have no memory’ files: the DSCC argument for 2014.

In a nutshell: Only three Democratic incumbents have lost reelection in the last decade.

…which is interesting, until you remember that the Democrats lost seven Democrat-held Senate races in 2010, and one in 2012.  If you’re wondering how that could be, well, either way you look at it it’s easier to maintain a high incumbent-reelection ratio when you’re sufficiently ruthless about getting weak incumbents out of the door. I don’t criticize the Democrats for that; pruning is what you have to do.  But it does a disservice to your own party’s contributors when you pretend that any election cycle is like any other.  The brutal truth is that this time around the Democrats have a large number of freshman Senators up for re-election who can’t be tossed out; and that their best two pickup states at this time are both long shots.  So you assume defense, going in. And it’s an off-year, which will help the Republicans more.

The Republican party is in a good position, in other words. Not good enough to suit its own partisans, but a deep and abiding pessimism is frankly baked into that particular partisan cake and there’s not much that any of us can do about it.

Moe Lane

Alaska’s LT GOV Mead Treadwell to run for Senate in 2014.

Well, this should be interesting:

Alaska Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell (R) announced Tuesday that he will officially challenge Sen. Mark Begich (D) in 2014, transitioning from an exploratory committee to a full-fledged campaign.

“This intense exploratory effort has convinced me that I have the support necessary to build a winning campaign,” Treadwell said on his Web site. “Today I’m taking the next step by announcing that I will not seek re-election as Alaska’s lieutenant governor and have begun to file documents required as a candidate for the United States Senate in 2014.”

(More via Roll Call) Lt. Governor is a good get; Treadwell was elected in 2010 and Sean Parnell isn’t going anywhere, any time soon, so this is a good lateral move for the Lt. Governor.

Continue reading Alaska’s LT GOV Mead Treadwell to run for Senate in 2014.

Democrats in Congress can’t afford to keep their jobs under Obamacare?

Gee.  What an absolute SHAME.

My first response to this was “Cry me a river”…

Dozens of lawmakers and aides are so afraid that their health insurance premiums will skyrocket next year thanks to Obamacare that they are thinking about retiring early or just quitting.

The fear: Government-subsidized premiums will disappear at the end of the year under a provision in the health care law that nudges aides and lawmakers onto the government health care exchanges, which could make their benefits exorbitantly expensive.

… but that’s not fair. More accurate to say “Cry me a river, Democrats.” I really do feel bad for any Republican staffer or legislator in a cleft stick over this, and do you know why? It’s because NO REPUBLICAN VOTED FOR OBAMACARE. It’s not their fault. But Democrats either voted for this mess, or endorsed it after the fact – and ‘caucusing with the Democrats’ does, in fact, count as ‘endorsing’ in this context. So does ‘working for a Democrat.’ This is Obamacare. This is what they voted for; if it turns out that it’s actually a hot, steaming mess of pure stupidity and failure, well, we in the Republican party weren’t shy about saying that at the time.

Guess it should be repealed, huh? Continue reading Democrats in Congress can’t afford to keep their jobs under Obamacare?

Wisconsin Democrats looking at “Anybody But ME!” for Governor race?

Democrats in Wisconsin want you to know: they’re going to be on the stick for 2014!

Wisconsin Democrats repeatedly made the argument at their state convention over the weekend that Governor Scott Walker needs to be defeated in 2014.

Hear that!  They’re tanned! Rested! And ready to go!

However, there continue to be few hints about exactly who will take on that challenge in the coming months.

…Oh.  Right.  One of them will have to actually volunteer to walk into the buzzsaw. Continue reading Wisconsin Democrats looking at “Anybody But ME!” for Governor race?

Democrats to try 2010 Obamacare strategy in 2014.

Well, it’s not like they have many options left at this point:

Scarred by years of Republican attacks over Obamacare, with more in store next year, Democrats have settled on an unlikely strategy for the 2014 midterms: Bring it on.

Party strategists believe that embracing the polarizing law — especially its more popular elements — is smarter politics than fleeing from it in the House elections. The new tack is a marked shift from 2010, when Republicans pointed to Obamacare as Exhibit A of big government run amok on their way to seizing the House from Democrats.

That’s… not precisely true, by the way.  It’s sort of incomplete: while ‘big government run amok’ was certainly a central theme of the 2010 elections, it doesn’t explain why Republicans were able to capitalize on it.  When you think about it, honestly, big government is not exactly a problem that only rises up when one party is in office.  Both parties are guilty: in 2010, one party got spanked and the other got all of those wonderfully troublesome new legislators joining their ranks. Why is that? Continue reading Democrats to try 2010 Obamacare strategy in 2014.

QotD, Dr. Dre Has A Definite Point edition.

Chris Wilson, over at Conservative Outpost (bolding mine):

CNN asked respondents, “As you may know, the IRS targeted conservative political groups for greater scrutiny of their applications for tax exempt status. How important in issue do you think this is to the nation?” Overall, 85% of respondents said it is important (55% very, 30% somewhat), to just 10% who say “not too important” and 5% who say “not important at all.”

So who were these people? Non-white respondents (62% very important) are more likely to say it was important than white respondents (52% very important). There’s a major crack in the Obama wall, reminding us of Dr. Dre’s immortal quote (I’m sure you quote the good Dr. as often as I do), “The only two things that scare me are God and the IRS.”

Continue reading QotD, Dr. Dre Has A Definite Point edition.