2012 shaping up like 2004, on the Generic Congressional Ballot level.

I spent perhaps a bit too much time this morning trying to put the spreadsheet below into graphical form:

Pollster Time R D R +/-
NPR Oct 3/4 43 43 0
NPR Sept 4/4 45 48 -3
Politico Oct 4/4 46 45 1
Politico Oct 3/4 46 46 0
Politico Oct 2/4 44 46 -2
Politico Oct 1/4 45 46 -1
Politico Sept 4/4 44 46 -2
Politico Sept 3/4 45 47 -2
Rasmussen Oct 4/4 46 43 3
Rasmussen Oct 3/4 44 43 1
Rasmussen Oct 2/4 42 43 -1
Rasmussen Oct 1/4 43 44 -1
Rasmussen Sept 4/4 45 41 4
Rasmussen Sept 3/4 44 43 1
Rasmussen Sept 2/4 44 43 1
Rasmussen Sept 1/4 42 44 -2

It shows the current pollsters checking the Generic Congressional Ballot, as per RCP.  Most of the labels are self-explanatory: “R +/-” represents the amount by which Republicans are ahead/behind on any given poll.  RCP’s current average is R+1.3, which represents a strong shift towards the Republicans in the last month among all three pollsters: 5 points for Rasmussen, 4 points for Politico, and 3 for NPR (although ‘shift’ is possibly the wrong word for the last one, given that there’s only been two polls).

Continue reading 2012 shaping up like 2004, on the Generic Congressional Ballot level.

Gallup: R+4 on the Generic Congressional Ballot.

Yes. Gallup.

(Via AoSHQ) Shift of eight points since July, which for Gallup represents the GOP ‘edging ahead.’ The current numbers are GOP/Democrats 48/44.  And 52/30 among independents.  And this represents registered voters, not likely ones.  Gallup tried to caveat this one every way that it could, but has to conclude:

Since Gallup regularly began using the generic ballot to measure registered voters’ preferences for the House of Representatives in 1950, it has been rare for Republicans to have an advantage over Democrats. This is likely because more Americans usually identify as Democrats than as Republicans, but Republicans can offset this typical Democratic advantage in preferences with greater turnout on Election Day. Most of the prior Republican registered-voter leads on the generic ballot in Gallup polling occurred in 1994 and 2002, two strong years for the GOP.

Particularly interesting is this amusing graph:


…and yes: the Democratic line does look uncannily like the trajectory of an airplane just after it has lost all power to the engines, mid-flight.  A real shame that this didn’t come out last Friday, huh?  There’s a bunch of Blue Dogs who probably would have appreciated the opportunity to factor this information into their long-term voting strategies.

Moe Lane

Crossposted to RedState.

The DOOM that came from Gallup.

Given in a polite, understated, terribly-sorry-to-bother-you sort of way:

Parties Nearly Tied for Congress in 2010

PRINCETON, NJ — Roughly a year before the 2010 midterm elections, Gallup finds the Republican and Democratic Parties nearly tied in the congressional ballot preferences of registered voters. Forty-six percent of registered voters say they would vote for the Democrat and 44% say the Republican when asked which party’s candidate they would support for Congress, if the election were held today.

The interesting part of this article is in what it lacks: to wit, any good news for Democrats. Gallup pointed out the registered/likely voter differential, the fact that historical trends are arguing for serious Republican gains next year if this keeps up, and even that the public despises the job that Congress is doing (which also is notably lacking in good news for Democrats, although it tries to give a little).  No doubt there will be people out there that will try to explain why all of this shows how horrible things are for the GOP right now; which is fine.  We all need more comedy in our lives.

Moe Lane

Crossposted to RedState.

Rasmussen reports tie in Generic Congressional Ballot.

Well, +1 D, but apparently that’s close enough for government work:

Parties Now Neck-and-Neck on Generic Congressional Ballot

Are Republicans winning the public relations battle over spending in the $800-billion-plus economic stimulus package? Democrats and Republicans are nearly even in this week’s edition of the Generic Congressional Ballot.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone surveys found that the Democrats’ lead is down to just one percentage point. Forty percent (40%) of voters said they would vote for their district’s Democratic candidate while 39% said they would choose the Republican (see crosstabs).

This marks the lowest level of support for the Democrats in tracking history and is the closest the two parties have been on the generic ballot.

Blue Dogs, take note. Or don’t: we can go with either scenario, really.

Crossposted to RedState.