#rsrh Looking at/for the partisan enthusiasm gap.

The following is a fairly vivid example of why people want to see crosstabs whenever possible when it comes to polls:

A R L
Romney 37 40 46
Obama 52 50 47
Republican 37 38 44
Democrat 50 49 48

The above is from a just-released AP-GfK poll; as you can see, it shows Obama up by one (47-46) over Romney in a poll of likely voters.  Bad news for Obama, as the intent was that he was supposed to be opening up a lead at this point; not so great news for Romney either, since the D+4 sample is a lot more likely to be reflective of the actual voting electorate in November than the D+7 or higher nonsense that we’ve been seeing lately.  But that’s another post. Continue reading #rsrh Looking at/for the partisan enthusiasm gap.

The downticket implications of Obama losing the suburbs.

Spoiler warning: ‘mixed.’

Michael Barone has taken a look at two non-battleground states – New Jersey and Connecticut – and sees something interesting:

In three recent polls in heavily affluent suburban Connecticut, Obama leads Romney by only 52%-43%. He carried the state 61%-38%. Obama is running 9% behind his 2008 percentage; his 23% margin is now 9%. Polling in New Jersey, also heavily affluent suburban, is averaging 50%-40%, down from Obama’s 57%-42% in 2008. Neither state is a target state (though south Jersey gets Philadelphia TV, with any Pennsylvania-targeted ads) or likely to be one on these numbers. But if the apparent CT and NJ trends are happening in affluent suburbs in target states, assumptions based on 2008 benchmarks could prove to be unjustified.

Barone goes on to note a what he (and I) consider to be too-good-to-be-true poll of Cook County, IL; but even if Cook County is not in play it still remains unlikely that Obama will make his 2008 numbers there, either, which is largely Michael Barone’s point.  But let’s go back to CT & NJ for a moment. Specifically, the Senate races in both. Continue reading The downticket implications of Obama losing the suburbs.

On that potentially troublesome Cook County poll.

Well, troublesome for Barack Obama.

The Daily Caller reported on a poll today that gave a rather remarkable result: it showed Barack Obama ahead of Mitt Romney 49 to 37… in Cook County, Illinois: which of course includes the City of Chicago.  Being under 50% in what can be considered the ultimate Democratic stronghold is not good news for the President.  In 2008 Cook County went for Obama over McCain 67/32; in 2010 it went for Quinn over Brady 54/40… which helped make the difference from Obama’s blowout 62/37 win statewide in 2008, and Quinn’s squeaker 47/46 win in 2010.  Put another way: if this poll is accurate, Obama’s got trouble in Illinois.

Since this report has been making the rounds of the Internet, I thought that I’d look into it a bit.  It turns out the poll comes from McKeon & Associates, which has been polling in Illinois since at least the 1980s.  A quick call to Michael McKeon got me access to the poll itself, which I’ll be talking about after the fold.

Continue reading On that potentially troublesome Cook County poll.

#rsrh Today’s Quinnipac University poll.

A helpful suggestion for Quinnipac University: there was something weird – and, worse, apparently inconsistent – going on with its last round of state-level polling.  Take a look at this chart:

Q-Poll Actual
M O Diff M O Diff Shift
Florida 40 53 -13 48 51 -3 -10
Ohio 38 53 -15 47 52 -5 -10
Pennsylvania 40 54 -14 44 55 -11 -3

(Originally noticed by @NathanWurtzel) Key: M is McCain, O is Obama.  The above compares the difference between the ratio of McCain/Obama voters in Quinnipac’s latest poll (which had Obama by six in Ohio and Florida, and by eleven in Pennsylvania) by the actual ratio of McCain/Obama voters from 2008.  As you can see… yes, Quinnipac at least found Obama voters.  But it wasn’t finding McCain voters in Florida and Ohio; and while I take Sean Trende’s point that people tend to ‘forget’ that they voted for the loser I have to note that they apparently didn’t forget in Pennsylvania. I would also suggest that the fact that Ohio and Pennsylvania flipped its state government (including governorships) to the GOP in 2010, while Florida increased its Republican majorities, suggests that the electorate in none of those states has gotten more Democratic in the last four years.  Continue reading #rsrh Today’s Quinnipac University poll.

#rsrh Quick observation on this Hot Air post on Biden’s gay marriage gaffe.

While I see Ed Morrissey’s point (I don’t know if I agree with it, but I see it) about whether it’s a big deal right now whether or not Barack Obama comes out in favor of same-sex marriage or not…

…it’s unimaginable that enthusiasm for Obama among black voters would suffer much, even if he reversed himself on gay marriage.  Even a slight reduction in turnout would be a rather doubtful assumption.  If Obama’s hold on this demographic is that fragile, he’s already lost the election.  The swing-state vote is a more realistic concern, but the current vacillation won’t help if those voters are keying on this topic, either, and they almost certainly aren’t.

Continue reading #rsrh Quick observation on this Hot Air post on Biden’s gay marriage gaffe.

#QotD, You Don’t Say? Edition.

The Christian Science Monitor, blinking through the sudden pain:

The poll by Gallup Inc. and USA Today showed Obama with 47 percent support in the 12 states and Romney with 45 percent, well within the survey’s margin of error of 4 percentage points. That is a tighter race than in March, when it found the Democratic president with 51 percent and Romney with 42 percent.

…You don’t say?

Moe Lane

PS: Interesting contrast with this, in some ways.

#rsrh …Dagnabbit, I need better crosstabs on these polls.

I just had to throw out four hours of work on a post on Virginia’s Romney/Obama Head-to-Head situation because I don’t really have the data to answer the question What percentage of the white vote can Obama reasonably expect in Virginia in 2012? This is important because (what follows is very much back-of-the-envelope calculating, based off of the NYT exit polls) if Obama gets 40% of the white vote (the percentage he won in 2008) and nothing else changes, he wins Virginia; if Romney gets 68% (the percentage Bush won in 2004) and nothing else changes, then he wins Virginia, by about the same percentage that Obama did*. Unfortunately, it’s still too early to make any kind of confident statement about which percentage of the white vote each candidate will get.

But it’s looks like it’s going to be that demographic that’s going to be the key to VA…

Moe Lane Continue reading #rsrh …Dagnabbit, I need better crosstabs on these polls.

#rsrh A general suggestion to pollsters, particularly D-leaning ones.

Triggered by flipping through this Hot Air post… STOP MUCKING ABOUT WITH THE SAMPLE’S PARTISAN ID PERCENTAGES.  That trick doesn’t work any more.  Everybody knows by now to look to see whether the partisan breakdown of the poll matches the actual voter percentages in the last few elections; and when they don’t (like they didn’t in the last National Journal poll) the impact of the poll is thus diminished.  Also: it’s not like skewed polling makes a difference, either: there were a lot of polls in 2010 that effectively failed to downplay just how badly the Democrats were going to do that year.  Finally: don’t just not release the partisan ID numbers, either.  People WILL ask where they are.

Seriously, all that using skewed polls is doing at this point is convincing half the country that you’re not to be trusted as far as you can be thrown.  Keep that in mind.

Hill poll: American electorate apparently not addicted to soaking rich.

Or, rather, they don’t actually realize that the soaking is already happening.

The most immediate thing to take away from this Hill poll is what the article on the subject leads with: which is, that something like three-fourths of the American electorate thinks that that the tax rate for the wealthy should be lower than it actually is (about the same proportion has a similar attitude towards similar tax rates for corporations).  So far, so good – but then there was this frankly laughable paragraph from the Hill article:

The new data seem to run counter to several polls that have found support for raising taxes on high-income earners. In an Associated Press-GfK poll released Friday, 65 percent said they favored President Obama’s “Buffett Rule” that millionaires should pay at least 30 percent of their income. And a Pew poll conducted in June found 66 percent of adults favored raising taxes on those making more than $250,000 as a way to tackle the deficit.

The bolding is mine – and is, of course, nonsense.  And you can tell that quite handily by looking at the questions. In order: Continue reading Hill poll: American electorate apparently not addicted to soaking rich.

Administration on wrong side of CNN freedom of conscience poll.

And BOOM goes the Dynamite.

Here is something that needs to be pointed out (as Hot Air did): this poll on the public reaction to the Obama’s administration’s attack on freedom of conscience is skewed toward the liberal position in at least two ways.  First, it polls adults, which traditionally skews things a couple points towards the Democrats; second, it took place after the administration/mainstream media blitz touting Obama’s compromise.  And said poll still shows a majority of respondents opposed to the Obama administration requiring religious organizations from funding procedures that violate those organizations’ religious beliefs.  50/44 opposed/for, and anybody out there willing to take a bet on those numbers changing in the administration’s favor when it comes to likely voters? Or even registered ones?  Actually, we already know; Rasmussen polled likely voters, and came up with 50/39 opposed/for.  Pew polled adults, but also polled Catholics (48/44 and 55/39 for exempting religious organizations, respectively).

CNN is left scratching its metaphorical head at its own results, given that the poll results also show extremely broad support (81/17 for/against) for birth control among Americans, including American Catholics (77/22).  Speaking as somebody who himself in opposition to the Church on this, let me explain the divergence between the two questions: yes, I and many other American Roman Catholics are functional if not formal heretics of the Church* over contraception.  We are, in fact, engaged in a long-term and probably ultimately unresolvable conflict over the doctrine involved. Continue reading Administration on wrong side of CNN freedom of conscience poll.