Tag: rasmussen

The May Rasmussen trust numbers.

There’s no article up on them yet, but the raw numbers are available here.

May 2010 April 2010
Issue Dem GOP Diff Dem GOP Diff Shift
Health Care 41% 48% (7) 41% 48% (7) –
Education 40% 43% (3) 43% 39% 4 (7)
Social Security 40% 42% (2) 40% 42% (2) –
Abortion 40% 42% (2) 40% 42% (2) –
Economy 39% 48% (9) 39% 43% (4) (5)
Taxes 36% 51% (15) 36% 51% (15) –
Iraq 36% 45% (9) 41% 44% (3) (6)
Nat’l Security 34% 51% (17) 40% 42% (2) (15)
Gov’t Ethics 33% 29% 4 34% 30% 4 –
Immigration 32% 47% (15) 38% 41% (3) (12)

Short version: 9 out of 10, and public trust in the Democrats to craft a proper immigration policy went through the floor. Continue reading The May Rasmussen trust numbers.

RCP: November continues to loom for Democrats.

Sean Trende of Real Clear Politics – an underrated blogger, possibly because RCP is such a good site generally that its bloggers get overshadowed – still holds his opinion from April that the House is going to flip big in November:

The bottom line is that Democrats are on pace for an ugly November. They’re increasingly running out of time to change the dynamic, and it looks about as likely that things will get worse as that they will get better. If the elections were held today, the balance of the evidence suggests they would lose 50-60 seats. If you think the political environment will improve for Democrats, you can adjust your expectations accordingly, but if you think they will get worse, you can do the same.

He’s basing that on a few things: the Gallup and Rasmussen generic ballot polls, and the NPR analysis.  Continue reading RCP: November continues to loom for Democrats.

#rsrh Depressing World Cup statistical news.

From Rasmussen:

A new Rasmussen Reports nationwide telephone survey finds that 66% of Adults correctly identify soccer, or football as it’s known outside the United States, as the sport played in the World Cup competition. However, three percent (3%) say it’s all about baseball, and one percent (1%) each think the international teams will be playing tennis, hockey or golf. Twenty-eight percent (28%) are not sure what sport will be played.

66% is far too high – and we really need to get that percentage of the population who think that it’s a golf competition up. It’s absolutely critical for our long-term national security needs; the more people in this country who don’t have a clue what the World Cup is, the fewer people who will get upset when we get our rears kicked by countries like Costa Rica or Ghana.  Dammit, just because it’s a slightly absurd geopolitical safety valve doesn’t mean that it’s not a real one…

Rasmussen: Support for Obamacare repeal almost 2-to-1.

I almost wish I hadn’t written this: it would have been perfect for this Rasmussen poll on Obamacare.

Support for repeal of the new national health care plan has jumped to its highest level ever. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 63% of U.S. voters now favor repeal of the plan passed by congressional Democrats and signed into law by President Obama in March.

Prior to today, weekly polling had shown support for repeal ranging from 54% to 58%.

Last year Sean Trende over at Real Clear Politics argued that the Democratic party took precisely the wrong lesson from 1994 by assuming that it was better to pass something titled ‘health care reform’ than to be visibly seen to fail; polls like this suggest that he’s right.

Roll on, November.

Moe Lane

Crossposted to RedState.

The April Rasmussen Trust numbers.

I’ve been trying to do this post for a few days (Rasmussen usually puts these numbers up before it does a formal article). Short version: eight out of ten for the GOP, but the Democrats made up lost territory across the board.

Apr-10 Mar-10
Issue Dem GOP Diff Dem GOP Diff Shift
Health Care 41% 48% (7) 37% 53% (16) 9
Education 43% 39% 4 40% 43% (3) 7
Social Security 40% 42% (2) 36% 48% (12) 10
Abortion 40% 42% (2) 32% 47% (15) 13
Economy 39% 43% (4) 37% 49% (12) 8
Taxes 36% 51% (15) 34% 52% (18) 3
Iraq 41% 44% (3) 39% 47% (8) 5
Nat’l Security 40% 42% (2) 36% 51% (15) 13
Gov’t Ethics 34% 30% 4 35% 33% 2 2
Immigration 38% 41% (3) 34% 47% (13) 10

Continue reading The April Rasmussen Trust numbers.

What to take away from this Rasmussen AZ-GOV poll.

The very short version: all four GOP candidates for Governor beat the likely Democratic nominee. The hidden message: Arizona voters don’t like the Democrats’ health care debacle.

Over the past month, despite even higher opposition to the new national health care plan in Arizona than is found nationally, [state AG General Terry] Goddard has refused to join other state attorneys general in suing to stop the plan from becoming law. He argues that the suit will be unsuccessful and is a waste of taxpayer money. [Republican governor Jan] Brewer has gone ahead with a lawsuit anyway, delegating the legal work to her general counsel.

Now Brewer, who became governor when Janet Napolitano moved to Washington to be secretary of Homeland Security and has been plagued with severe budget problems ever since, earns 44% to Goddard’s 40%. A month ago, Goddard posted a 45% to 36% lead over the governor. were virtually tied in January.

Which should surprise nobody, but probably will. Ach, well, maybe May will see the sudden blossoming of support by the American people for a scheme that threatens to extend governmental control over 1/6th of the economy.

Moe Lane

Crossposted to RedState.

Rasmussen succumbs to snark.

Rasmussen usually makes a good-faith effort to avoid being sardonic, but sometimes they just can’t help themselves (bolding mine):

…voters are closely divided over Congress’ most important role: 49% say it’s passing good legislation, while 43% see it as preventing bad legislation from becoming law. That’s why 39% of voters say it’s a good thing in today’s political climate to be the Party of No. But 34% disagree and say it’s not a good thing.

Seventy-four percent (74%) of voters correctly identify Republicans as the political party some have labeled the Party of No. Despite, or perhaps because of, this high level of awareness, Republicans have built a solid lead over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot.

The title of this Rasmussen Report, by the way: “57% Have More Trust In Those In Congress Who Voted Against Bailouts.”  And that’s not even the worst news for Democrats in there.  The worst news for Democrats in there is that they’ve spent the last year viciously attacking a movement that 52% of the population thinks has a better grasp of current affairs than the average Member of Congress.  Because that isn’t going to translate as ‘throw all of them out;’ it’s going to translate to ‘throw all of them who are standing in the way out”…

Moe Lane

Crossposted to RedState.

The March Rasmussen Trust Numbers.

Short version: nine out of ten, and the word ‘Pyrrhic’ seems ever-more appropriate when discussing the Democrats’ health care monstrosity.

Mar-10 Feb-10
Issue Dem GOP Diff Dem GOP Diff Shift
Health Care 37% 53% (16) 42% 45% (3) (13)
Education 40% 43% (3) 41% 38% 3 (6)
Social Security 36% 48% (12) 39% 42% (3) (9)
Abortion 32% 47% (15) 38% 42% (4) (11)
Economy 37% 49% (12) 41% 46% (5) (7)
Taxes 34% 52% (18) 37% 48% (11) (7)
Iraq 39% 47% (8) 38% 42% (4) (4)
Nat’l Security 36% 51% (15) 37% 47% (10) (5)
Gov’t Ethics 35% 33% 2 35% 28% 7 (5)
Immigration 34% 47% (13) 34% 39% (5) (8)

Continue reading The March Rasmussen Trust Numbers.

Unpacking the Rasmussen partisan numbers.

I had read the latest Rasmussen examination on the topic (short version: health care debate increased both the GOP and Democrats’ partisan identification) when I noticed that they had provided a handy table of their polling results over time.  I personally feel that this material is more accessible in graph form; so I pulled the results, averaged them by quarter, and graphed the whole thing out.  So:

The vertical bars represent the last three federal elections.  Using somewhat primitive analysis methods (‘squinting and looking’) 2005-2006 seems to show that Independent voters increased at the cost of Republican ones; and 2007-2008 seems to show Democratic voters increased at the cost of Independent ones.  And since then… Republican voters are more or less holding steady, while Democratic voters are dropping at about the same rate that Independent ones are growing. Continue reading Unpacking the Rasmussen partisan numbers.

Man, I’m worried about getting punched by that Obamacare bill!

Because when they finally pass that thing, it’s supposed to have this massive and immediate effect on public opinion (ten points to the President was former President Clinton’s guess, I believe)…

What?  It passed last week?  Well, what was the result?

One week after the House of Representatives passed the health care plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats, 54% of the nation’s likely voters still favor repealing the new law. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 42% oppose repeal.

Those figures are virtually unchanged from last week. They include 44% who Strongly Favor repeal and 34% who Strongly Oppose it.

So, you’re saying that I’ve already gotten hit, and I never even noticed?

Well, we are talking about Democrats, here. Can’t take a punch; can’t throw one, either.

Moe Lane

Crossposted to RedState.