rasmussen – Page 5

I’d like to introduce these two approval rating polls to each other.

[UPDATE]: Welcome, Hot Air readers. May I suggest this Gibbs video? It’s translated!

Gallup, meet Rasmussen.

Rasmussen, Gallup.

I believe that you two have something in common*.

Crossposted to RedState. Continue reading I’d like to introduce these two approval rating polls to each other.

The August Rasmussen Public Trust Numbers.

Democrats slip to -3 on health care.

I think that this is going to sting the Democrats a little.

August 2009				July 2009
Issue	Dem	GOP	Diff	Dem	GOP	Diff	Shift
Health Care	41%	44%	(3)	46%	42%	4	(7)
Education	38%	41%	(3)	41%	38%	3	(6)
Social Security	39%	43%	(4)	37%	42%	(5)	1
Abortion	36%	46%	(10)	39%	46%	(7)	(3)
Economy	40%	46%	(6)	41%	46%	(5)	(1)
Taxes	35%	51%	(16)	36%	52%	(16)	–
Iraq	42%	42%	–	41%	45%	(4)	4
Nat’l Security	43%	47%	(4)	40%	49%	(9)	5
Gov’t Ethics	34%	31%	3	33%	34%	(1)	4
Immigration	35%	43%	(8)	34%	40%	(6)	(2)

Eight out of ten again, and the only sour note is that last month’s Democratic-flavored scandals were not sufficiently public enough to overcome what appears to be the built-in public bias on Government Ethics. On the other hand, we just took first place in health care for the first time in two years, and it’s still fifteen months to November 2010. So, room for development, there. As for the Iraq question… well, for both countries’ sake I’m just as pleased to see that it’s reflecting a relatively quiet situation. The way that our domestic numbers are racking up I’m just as happy to concentrate on those right now anyway.

So, you have to wonder: at what point will the White House decide that it’s time to fold and start a new hand?

Moe Lane

(H/T: @JamesRichardson)

Crossposted to RedState.

‘Hmm, let me see what Rasmussen’s put up today…’ Toomey 48%, Specter 36%

:sound effect of mouthful of coffee being sprayed across the monitor:

Uncomfortable town hall meetings are just the tip of the iceberg for Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter. He now trails Republican Pat Toomey by double digits in his bid for reelection next year and is viewed unfavorably by a majority of the state’s voters.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Pennsylvania voters shows 48% would vote for Toomey if the election were held today. Just 36% would vote for Specter while four percent (4%) prefer a third option, and 12% are not sure.

These figures reflect a dramatic reversal since June. At that time, before the public health care debate began, Specter led Toomey by eleven.

:pause:

Wow. Continue reading ‘Hmm, let me see what Rasmussen’s put up today…’ Toomey 48%, Specter 36%

Rasmussen: Plurality of Americans support town hall protesters.

The Democrats had best hope that this is not party-line thinking.

The results are 41% support / 35% don’t / 23% not sure, but the interesting thing here is the partisan breakdown:

Given the partisan anger prompted by the town hall meetings, it’s not surprising to see a similar divide in the survey. Fifty-five percent (55%) of Democrats have an unfavorable view of those opposing the health care reform plan proposed by President Obama and the leaders of their party. Sixty-three percent (63%) of Republicans and the plurality (48%) of voters not affiliated with either party view the protesters favorably.

Not good news for the administration. Neither is the breakdown on the “Are they fake?” question (49% real, 37% fake, 14% not sure):

The partisan divide is even wider when the motivations of the protesters are at issue. Seventy percent (70%) of Republicans and 58% of unaffiliated voters say the protesters reflect the concerns of their neighbors. Sixty-one percent (61%) of Democrats say the protests are phony.

All in all: this poll is only good news for Congressmen sitting in safely liberal districts. Everybody else favoring health care rationing? Not so much.

Moe Lane

Crossposted to RedState.

When you’re losing NPR…

There is – some – good news for the administration in this latest NPR poll (via Political Wire, h/t Soren Dayton), but when you’re a Democrat getting these kinds of results among registered* voters**:

Those are the chief findings of the latest NPR poll of registered voters conducted nationwide Wednesday through Sunday by a bipartisan team. The pollsters found 53 percent approving of the president’s handling of his job, while 42 percent disapproved — the narrowest gap of the Obama presidency to date. Most of the approving group said they approved strongly, and an even greater majority of the disapproving group said they disapproved strongly.

Poll respondents liked a Democratic statement on solving health care problems better than a Republican statement (51 percent to 42 percent). However, when asked about the plan now moving through Congress, a plurality of 47 percent was opposed and 42 percent said they were in favor, based on what they had heard about the plan so far.

…you have a problem. The poll results also report that voters are also currently favoring generic Republican candidates over Democratic ones, 43/42 (and hastens to add that it’s within MoE): Rasmussen, of course, reported yesterday that the GOP lead the Democrats 42/39 among likely voters (that’s the fifth week in a row that the GOP’s lead on that question). It’s going to be an interesting August, particularly since it looks increasingly likely that there will be a lot of Democrats that are going to be asked how they plan to vote on healthcare rationing, rather than why they voted for healthcare rationing. Either one would have been fun to work with, but I suppose that it’s unreasonable to expect to have both.

Moe Lane

*Although the actual poll says “likely” at the very beginning. I assume that there’s an arcane reason for that.

**Gallup had him at 54% on Tuesday. All of these numbers will go up, by the way: the President’s approval ratings are linked to his job performance, and presumably at some point he’ll appear to be performing it. But the days of the President being the One Who Ejaculates Roses are well and truly gone. Continue reading When you’re losing NPR…

Forty-nine percent approval rating on Rasmussen.

Forty-nine percent.

You ain’t so tough, Barack Obama.

Oh, don’t get me wrong. Beating you is going to be tough for us to do. You have the executive branch of government – and nominally, the legislative as well. We have over a year to go before the 2010 elections, and things will improve for you and your party. So we will have to work for our wins.

But you’re not a machine. You’re a man*.

And you ain’t so tough.

Moe Lane

Crossposted to RedState.

*Classical reference.

Plus Four on the generic Congressional ballot.

42/38 Republican/Democrat: fourth week in a row that it’s been favoring the GOP, so expect it to bounce back soon. And then expect it bounce back again to favor the GOP, because while any individual week may not matter, the trend is indicative of the notion that the Democrats have managed to do in three years what it took the GOP twelve: lose the mantle of being the trustworthy party.

If you like, you can instead couch it in terms of Bad vs. Worse. As long as you understand that the best way to fix Bad is to get some skin into the game on the local level.

Crossposted to RedState.

Some quick Rasmussen polls.

Virginia Governor: McDonnell 44%, Deeds 41%. Expect that one to be volatile.

New York Democratic Senate Primary: Maloney 33%, Gillibrand 27%. Guess Paterson picked the wrong Representative to elevate to the Senate. Speaking of which…

New York Democratic Governor Primary: Cuomo 61%, Paterson 27%. Does anybody have any idea at all why Cuomo hasn’t just announced already?

Texas Republican Governor Primary: Perry 46%, Hutchison 36%. That lead’s increased, but I believe that KBH is going to still run anyway.

And last, but not least: today is not the day that POTUS drops below 50% in Rasmussen’s daily poll. He’s still holding out at 51%.

Crossposted to RedState.

The July Rasmussen Public Trust numbers.

Short version: the public trusts the GOP over the Democrats 8-for-10 at this point, and we flipped the Abortion and Social Security categories. That being said, the numbers readjusted themselves in the Democrats’ favor 5-for-10 as compared to last month‘s.

July 2009				June 2009
Issue	Dem	GOP	Diff	Issue	Democrats	GOP	Diff	Shift
Health Care	46%	42%	4	Health Care	47%	37%	10	(6)
Education	41%	38%	3	Education	44%	37%	7	(4)
Social Security	37%	42%	(5)	Social Security	43%	37%	6	(11)
Abortion	39%	46%	(7)	Abortion	41%	41%	–	(7)
Economy	41%	46%	(5)	Economy	39%	45%	(6)	1
Taxes	36%	52%	(16)	Taxes	39%	44%	(5)	(11)
Iraq	41%	45%	(4)	Iraq	37%	45%	(8)	4
Nat’l Security	40%	49%	(9)	Nat’l Security	36%	51%	(15)	6
Gov’t Ethics	33%	34%	(1)	Gov’t Ethics	29%	35%	(6)	5
Immigration	34%	40%	(6)	Immigration	29%	43%	(14)	8

Rasmussen has only put these numbers out here so far, unless I’ve missed it. The shift down for the Democrats may be a trend; it may also be an inevitable result of the Republicans improving their position in eight out of ten categories from May to June. Either way, I don’t think that it’s an accident that most of the GOP increases are in areas that have been in the news for the last month; particularly taxes, and particularly health care. The Democrats may want to consider adopting a strategy of visibly doing nothing at all, on anything…

Moe Lane

PS: Also, the upcoming monthly financial reports for the various committees are going to be very interesting.

Crossposted to RedState.