Jim Geraghty did a perfectly acceptable job taking the Democrats to the woodshed for being blindsided in yesterday’s win in SC-01 (I will note, btw, that I in fact called it ahead of time), but I want to highlight this part:
It’s bad enough for the press to not know the district, but national Democrats don’t have that excuse. Today you’re hearing a lot of talk along the lines of, ‘oh, everyone knew this was a really conservative district and that Sanford would probably win.’ Well, you don’t spend more than $2 million ($1.2 million in donations to Colbert Busch, more than $929,000 on independent expenditures against Sanford) for a race you know you can’t win. Maybe this race really was unwinnable for Democrats, but this means that the DCCC and its allies have serious problems in assessing the terrain and determining which races ought to be prioritized.
Mark Sanford, by a bit. This is frankly subjective, but I suspect that more people agree with me on this than let on: I’ve been reading a lot of ‘momentum swinging back to Sanford’ pieces by individuals and groups who aren’t particularly happy about that development. Generally you’d be expecting more triumphalist posts by Democrats at this point if they thought that Elizabeth Colbert Busch was a shoo-in. Or maybe even any.
This is a “If you put a gun to my head” kind of prediction, by the way: it’s hard to predict a special election result when there’s any kind of controversy and/or complication. Which is why we have elections. Anyway, I’d rather be the kind of person who will give an opinion when it means something even if it means being wrong every so often* than the kind who waits until the coast is clear and say I knew it all along. What’s the freaking use of that?
This is the most important point to note from PPP’s gulping report of a double-digit collapse of Elizabeth Colbert Busch’s chances in SC-01 (Mark Sanford went from -9 to +1 over Busch in two weeks, and the more Republican the likely voter electorate gets in the next two days, the better it looks for Sanford):
If SC-1 voters went to the polls on Tuesday and voted for the candidate they personally liked better, Colbert Busch would be the definite winner. That’s why Sanford’s campaign has tried to shift the focus toward national Democrats who are unpopular in the district, and that’s been a key in helping him to make this race competitive again. Nancy Pelosi has a 24/61 approval rating in SC-1 and although voters don’t like Sanford, they do like him better than Pelosi by a 53/37 margin. President Obama doesn’t fare a whole lot better in the district. His approval is 39/54, and voters say they have a higher opinion of Sanford than him by a 48/44 spread.
That’s the conclusion that you have to draw from this report on South Carolinan candidate Elizabeth Colbert Busch (D CAND, SC-01). I’m afraid to say:
As of March 2013, Colbert Busch has taken $26,000 from unions:
She took $5,000 from the Machinists Non Partisan Political League of The International Association of Machinists on March 15, 2013.
As Jim notes, the IAM was the group that tried to take away Boeing’s North Charleston manufacturing line; while the factory itself is not in the first Congressional District, that’s not going to be necessarily true of its workers. I certainly hope that Elizabeth Colbert Busch explains at some point why she thinks that it’s OK to take money from a group who wanted to help wreck the economy of the very district and state that she putatively* wishes to represent…
*The truth is, of course, that the only people that Colbert Busch really wishes to represent are Nancy Pelosi and other Democratic liberals – a group that probably by now half-wishes that Sherman had had access to nukes.
Sorry, but this is about the most interesting piece of political news that’s shown up today. On the GOP side, Mark Sanford and (probably) Curtis Bostic will be competing in the runoff; on the Democratic side, Stephen Colbert’s sister… won. And I wouldn’t want to be the Democratic flack who ends up getting assigned to the thankless job of trying to make the Democratic primary result look like anything except very, very lackluster*.
We’ll see how the runoff goes. But nothing really unexpected happened tonight, to at least some people’s chagrin.
*Mind you, the Republican flack who will probably soon have to come up with a good, compelling reason not to have people go and bounce spoons off of Mark Sanford’s forehead** doesn’t have that much better of a job.
**After voting him back into office, assuming Sanford wins the runoff.
Expect an all-out war in the Republican primary to replace now-Senator Tim Scott. Via Jim Geraghty comes this list:
On the GOP side, potential candidates include former Gov. Mark Sanford and his ex-wife, former first lady Jenny Sanford; state Sens. Chip Campsen and Larry Grooms; state Reps. Chip Limehouse, Peter McCoy, Jim Merrill and Andy Patrick; Charleston County Councilman Elliott Summey; Dorchester County Councilman Jay Byars; Charleston City Councilman Mike Seekings; Mount Pleasant Town Councilman Ken Glasson; former state Sen. John Kuhn; former Charleston County School Board member Larry Kabrovsky; former Charleston County Council members Curtis Bostic and Joe McKeown; and Lowcountry businessmen Keith Blandford, Carroll Campbell, Mark Lutz, Bob Menges and Teddy Turner.
Tim is the front-runner in the GOP primary runoff for SC-01, and he took the time to talk with us about the state of the race and why he’s running.
Tim’s site is here: he’s a state representative and former Charleston County official. The runoff is June 22nd. There’s been a good deal of interest among RedState’s readers about this race thus far, and I expect that said interest will continue…