Moe Lane

Spoiler warning: he will.

Apparently, Ron Barber – the Democrat running to replace Gabby Giffords in the AZ-08 special election – has a bit of a problem with the entire ‘Democrat’ thing:  “[Republican nominee Jesse] Kelly asked Barber to declare who he’ll vote for in November for president, and Barber – although a Democrat with an incumbent president of his party – refused, saying he’s focused on his own campaign.”  This is a somewhat eyebrow-raising evasion – one would think that a Democrat currently running in a Democratic-held seat with a Democrat in the White House would be less coy – and it tells us several things: (more…)

Via @SissyWillis.  Basically, Jesse Kelly is up against former Gabby Giffords staffer Ron Barber, who is already allowing the Democratic party to try to couch the whole contest in apocalyptic terms.  Because that’s what Democratic candidates do, these days.  The special election is in June; the primary for next year’s term will be in August; and the election will of course be in November.  In other words, expect this seat to be in the news for a while.

Also, let me make a prediction: if Kelly wins the special election, expect the GOP to declare this a harbinger of the 2012 elections, the Democrats to deny that, and the media to be divided (they like selling papers).  If Kelly loses, reverse the party names.  Reality is, I don’t know which side is favored; I just know… Jesse Kelly for AZ-08.

My gut’s telling me that if Mitt Romney wins, it’s going to be by a bit; if Rick Santorum wins, it’s going to be by a hair; if Newt Gingrich wins, it’s going to be a miracle; and if Ron Paul wins, it’s going to be this.

Mind you, there’s a big dividing line between ‘Rick Santorum wins’ and ‘Newt Gingrich wins.’

Moe Lane

PS: As to who will win? Don’t know, don’t really care.

Ed Morrissey’s thoughts on Arizona Governor Jan Brewer’s endorsement of Mitt Romney make sense, but there’s another thought: could this simply be about immigration?  Romney’s portraying himself as a hardline immigration hawk at this point*, and Brewer got herself elected in 2010 largely on her willingness to take and keep a hard line on the topic herself.  Not too surprising that this might translate into an endorsement, honestly.

But will it work?  Don’t know, don’t care.

Moe Lane

*Note my choice of verb.

Strikes one and two:

An Arizona sheriff who became the face of Sen. John McCain’s stand against illegal immigration threatened his boyfriend, an illegal immigrant himself, with deportation if news of their relationship ever leaked out, an alternative newspaper in Arizona reported Saturday.

[snip of Paul Babeu denying that he threatened his ex with deportation]

The Phoenix New Times first reported the threats early Saturday after interviewing the boyfriend, a 34-year old Mexican man, and his lawyer. The boyfriend alleges Chris DeRose, Babeu’s campaign manager, demanded he sign a confidentiality agreement; if the relationship became public, the boyfriend says DeRose hinted it would focus attention on the boyfriend’s immigration status.

I don’t care whether Babeu’s gay or not, of course; and under normal circumstances bringing it up would be irrelevant to the situation. The man’s not married and what two consenting adults get up to in their private lives is largely a matter of indifference to me. And, of course, a person’s sexuality is independent of his or her views on illegal immigration. There are plenty of gay people out there who take a tough stance on the issue.

But. Those people generally don’t go out with allegedly illegal immigrants and then threaten them later. The Phoenix New Times article can and will be contested, but it’s definitely clear that there was a relationship, it went fairly spectacularly south, and Babeu made some statements in the aftermath that do not reflect well on him. As in, statements that can be construed as being potentially abusive-of-power.

And then there’s strike three: (more…)

Come, I will conceal nothing from you.  Jan Brewer of Arizona is not… my favorite Republican governor, on paper.  I won’t get into why; if you must have a reason, call it ‘stylistic differences’ and be done with it.

But dang if she’s not able to get under President Barack Obama’s skin like nobody’s business:

[Gov. Jan Brewer] said the president brought up [her new book Scorpions for Breakfast*].

“I thought we probably would’ve talked about the things that were important to him and important to me, helping one another. Our country is upside down. Arizona was upside down. But we have turned it around. I know again that he loves this country and I love this country.”

It was clear from the moment they greeted one another that this would not be a run-of-the-mill encounter between the president and a local official. At one point, she was pointing her finger at him and at another, they were talking at the same time, seemingly over each other.

He appeared to walk away from her while they were still talking, and she confirmed that by saying she didn’t finish her sentence.

More here and here. I have to say, it’s amazing just how awful the President is at being pleasant in somewhat awkward situations. It’s like nobody’s ever taught him how to exhibit basic social graces under adverse conditions… oh, right, that’s because nobody ever did.

Moe Lane

*The full title is Scorpions for Breakfast: My Fight Against Special Interests, Liberal Media, and Cynical Politicos to Secure America’s Border; I give you the title in full in the hopes that it will act as what we in this business call a ‘tell.’

Congresswoman Giffords, of course, was gravely wounded in 2011 in a murderous attack by a madman that left six dead and thirteen injured. Since then, Giffords has made a remarkable recovery; unfortunately, it apparently has not been enough of a recovery, so she’s resigning in order to concentrate on her health.  The video below of the announcement both shows the extent of her injuries, and the impressive extent to which she’s already surmounted them: I don’t know if Congresswoman Giffords will ever heal fully, but she’s already doing much better than I privately expected.

More here (via Hot Air Headlines): as this is a House seat, the Governor of Arizona will schedule a special election for the remainder of Giffords’ term.  Obviously, our best wishes and prayers for Congresswoman Giffords’ continued recovery.

Moe Lane (crosspost)

Via The Truth About Guns (via Instapundit) comes this gem from Arizona Sheriff Paul Babeu’s bipartisan press conference requesting that Attorney General Eric Holder come clean about his involvement in Operation Fast & Furious:

Every time there’s a shooting or there’s a crime committed on American soil, the first question shouldn’t be, “My God, were these the guns that our own government gave these criminals?“

Arizona law enforcement is, shall we say, personally interested in this sort of thing.  Which is why they’re calling for an independent special counsel on Operation Fast & Furious.

Moe Lane

…that means it’s time to deal with the issue that has the most lopsided PiTA/True Relevance ratio in American political theory.  I refer, of course, to the annual battle over who gets to have their primary first:

In the final days before states submit their primary and caucus plans to the Republican National Committee, the GOP is sweating bullets over the possibility that a gang of rogue states could still wreak havoc on the 2012 presidential nominating process.

One state, Arizona, has already announced that it will violate RNC rules and hold its primary on February 28 – a full week before joint RNC-Democratic National Committee rules permit states to do so. Michigan’s legislature is also moving toward scheduling its vote for the same date.

Then there’s Florida, a repeat offender when it comes to calendar mischief, which has empaneled a committee to choose an election date that’s expected to fall before the RNC-sanctioned date of March 6.

(more…)

Via Drudge, this is a somewhat… surprising reaction to local Democrat Anthony Prowell’s attempts to run in the Democrat primary against Rep. Giffords:

Initially looking to run for office as a Democrat, Prowell has been subjected to the ire of local party officials and everyday citizens aghast that he would challenge Giffords, who has only cast one congressional vote since a near-fatal shooting in January.

The few local Democratic Party officials he has spoken with on the phone are “livid” and have “flat out said, ‘we already have a congresswoman and I will not support you in any means whatsoever’” before hanging up, Prowell said.

(more…)

I note that friend and RedState colleague Dan McLaughlin has noted Moonbeam Brown’s minion’s response to the suggestion by certain South Californians (as opposed to Southern Californians, if you get that distinction) that they’re tired of dealing with the dysfunctional state government in Sacramento:

“If you want to live in a Republican state with very conservative right-wing laws, then there’s a place called Arizona,” Brown spokesman Gil Duran said.

Just some minor points about that.  Riffing off of Dan’s points about California: (more…)

This is creepy as all hell.

Representative Gabrielle Giffords is still in the hospital, but some of her most ardent backers are so enamored of the idea of her running for the Senate that they describe the inevitable campaign commercials: the deep-voiced narrator recounting what happened to her, the images of her wounded, then recovering and speaking into the camera alongside her astronaut husband to call on Arizonans to unite.

(Via, obviously, Jim Geraghty) Don’t get me wrong: it’s not creepy for Rep. Giffords’ staff to be setting the stage for a possible Senate run in her absence.  Even if she hadn’t been shot, Rep. Giffords would be on the short list* to run for Senator Kyl’s seat anyway: so you cannot fairly say that her staff is taking undue advantage of the Tuscon shootings.  But I think that the New York Times should have expanded a little on those unnamed individuals who are currently fantasizing about the possible campaign commercials.  The lack of information there is what’s causing the creepiness, in my opinion: I’d like to know whether this is just the usual fetid Internet swamp bilge, or whether it’s more… entrenched…

Moe Lane

*If not the actual front-runner.  Even before the assassination attempt, Rep. Giffords was easily the most prominent Arizona Democrat in the public eye after Janet Napolitano, who at this point would probably not win a Senate race in 2012.