It’s official: DOOM for Deeds.

When the trailing candidate’s campaign starts talking about GOTV as the primary strategy for victory, it’s over.

…the question that remains unanswered is whether they can prevail in a campaign in which Virginia’s many independent voters have turned against the national Democratic brand and with a nominee who many in the party privately believe has run a mediocre race.

The answer will be revealed on Election Night when the returns come in from northern Virginia, and particularly Fairfax County, the commonwealth’s largest jurisdiction. The Deeds campaign believes it needs to carry the region with at least 55 percent to win the election and at least approach the 60 percent threshold that recent Democratic candidates have captured in populous Fairfax.

As for turnout, the hope is to push the percentage of northern Virginia’s vote from 33 percent of the statewide electorate to above 35 percent.

I am a little surprised that this post can be written now, though: I had it scheduled for some time around the 29th. Obviously, turnout is very important; but it’s usually not until about a week or so before the actual election that losing campaigns start using it as a tool to backstop eroding enthusiasm. Seeing this happen this early suggests that Virginia Democrats are worrying about the downticket races.

Moe Lane

PS: Bob McDonnell for Governor. Because it’s not over until it’s over.

PPS: The big question for Chris Christie in NJ isn’t turnout for him; it’s whether Daggett’s going to break double-digits on Election Day (at this moment, this question makes the difference between a 1-point win for Christie, and probably a 3-point one). Which I’ll believe when I see it.

Crossposted to RedState.

Booby Prize for Creigh Deeds.

He asked for the President; he got the Cubslayer.

Gore coming to Va. for Deeds

Former Vice President Al Gore will be coming to Virginia on Friday to give a last-minute boost to the Democratic candidate for governor, Creigh Deeds, a party source said.

Gore will headline a private fundraiser in McLean at the home of longtime Democratic supporters Al and Claire Dwoskin.

But surely this doesn’t necessarily mean…

Obama in Virginia, But Not For Deeds

President Obama is in Fairfax County today.

But not to campaign for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Creigh Deeds.

Snap!

Instead, Obama visits the Fairfax County Parkway extension today with Secretary of Transportation Ray LaHood to talk about federal stimulus spending.

Ah.

Well.

Moe Lane

PS: Bob McDonnell for Governor.

Crossposted to RedState.

NJ/VA Palin-less?

(Via Hot Air) The Democrats in this Politico piece about former Gov. Palin and the VA/NJ races are spouting nonsense about her long term appeal, of course* – they’re aware as I am that she’s going to be very much in demand in Congressional races where the Democratic incumbent is holding down a seat in a district that McCain or Bush won. Of which there are quite a few; but Democratic strategists can perhaps not be blamed for not wanting to say something along the lines of ‘Well, THAT WOMAN is going to go through all those Southern/Western Blue-on-Red districts like a buzz-saw, so you might as well get used to it.’ The people who need to hear that most will want to hear it least.

That being said, I don’t expect her to participate in the NJ gubernatorial election, although VA’s may yet still see a presence if the McDonnell campaign goes sour. Virginia’s at best lightly purple, even now; New Jersey’s pretty definitely blue. Christie doesn’t have a margin for taking chances right now.

Moe Lane

*As might be perhaps witnessed by interest in her book, which is currently at #3 on Amazon after spending over a week at #1. And that was individual pre-order.

Crossposted to RedState.

DNC preparing to cut Creigh Deeds loose?

(Via The Campaign Spot) Not that they would ever, ever come out and say so – but when the one truly hopeful poll that one’s had in months for a particular campaign reverses itself the next time it’s taken again, well. Let’s just say that a handy excuse would be… handy.

The bad poll news comes on the heels of a story circulating in Democratic circles today that the Democratic National Committee is reportedly holding on to its $5 million financial commitment to the Deeds campaign out of concern that the Deeds campaign has focused too much of its attention on the controversial Bob McDonnell 1989 grad-school thesis setting out a hardline social-conservative political agenda for his budding political career and not enough on putting down a framework for what a Deeds administration would do for Virginia.

That’s so clever it’s almost diabolical. Remember: Deeds is the guy that the national party had the least preexisting ties with, so there’s less people to offend here. And telling him to come up with a new campaign narrative may sound reasonable – until you remember that we’re down to one month before the election. Also, five million dollars is suddenly looking like a lot more money, in this era of anemic Democratic fundraising; obviously, spending it on an election is what it’s there for… but throwing it away on an election is usually not considered smart.

Again, there’s no possible way that the DNC will ever admit that they’re going to cut Deeds loose. They’ll in fact angrily deny it. But ask yourself: in their shoes, would you be throwing good money after Creigh?

Moe Lane

PS: Bob McDonnell for Governor. It’s the only way to be sure.

Crossposted to RedState.

Jim Geraghty now trying to buck up Deeds campaign.

They could use it: as near as can be determined, the eye-rolling thesis story pretty much did its thing, with no significant change for the last month, and Deeds is still losing the race for Virginia governor 48-43 with just over a month to go. So Geraghty’s sort of trying to cheer them up about it: who says that Republicans are incapable of pity?

Moe Lane

PS: The PPP poll, by the way, assumes that the voter percentages is better today for Democrats than it was in the 2008 election. It’s also showing that the downticket races are going along nicely. Well, nicely for Republicans.

PPS: Bob McDonnell for Governor.

Crossposted to RedState.

Creigh’s Ms.-Deeds.

Isn’t there a television show that does this sort of thing? Countdown With Keith Olbermann Jackass, or something like that?

Bob McDonnell’s campaign received a call this morning from a woman who called herself “Jennifer” and claimed to be a freelance reporter from the Connection newspapers in Northern Virginia. She asked for information about McDonnell’s schedule.

The problem? She isn’t a reporter. She actually works for Creigh Deeds’s campaign.

McDonnell spokesman Tucker Martin, who took her call, said the caller ID showed Deeds’s campaign headquarters phone number and the words “Deeds for Va.”

Jim Geraghty’s right: this isn’t the biggest thing in the world. In that, it’s a perfect match to Deed’s campaign. I particularly enjoyed the fumble-fingered way that they got tripped up; you know, I’m pretty sure that Moran would have been able to play this particular dirty trick properly…

Moe Lane

PS: McDonnell for Governor. Donate here.

Crossposted to RedState.

Maybe Deeds could try to hit McDonnell with his car?

Ha! Got it right this time. Anyway, this video from the VA GOP:

…is a nice supplement to this WaPo article (via Jim Newell, who seems a bit bitter):

Democratic gubernatorial candidate R. Creigh Deeds is running behind his Republican opponent in a recent Washington Post poll in large part because he has yet to win over voters in populous, Democratic-leaning Northern Virginia.

[snip]

In the Washington Post poll, Deeds had his best showing among suburban Washington voters, running about evenly with McDonnell, who is a native of Fairfax County.

Bolding mine, and let me translate what that means for the Deeds campaign if that’s not fixed:

DOOM.

Moe Lane

PS: McDonnell for Governor. Donate here.

Crossposted to RedState.

PPP: McDonnell/Deeds 51/37.

Looks like Obama’s campaign schedule is pretty much clear for the rest of the year.

[UPDATE] Gah! It’s like a glitch in my brain. McDonnell, McDonnell, McDonnell.

That was the response of one of my colleagues from the news that McDonnell has taken a commanding lead in the VA race (and the news that Christie continues to dominate Corzine); while there’s still three months to go before the election, and while Deeds did win the primary despite being the underdog, these numbers aren’t good for the Democrats. They are also roughly similar to last weeks SurveyUSA poll, which PPP itself notes:

The problem is all in who’s motivated and planning to turn out- McCain supporters are at a considerably higher rate than Obama’s, and that means a healthy McDonnell lead.

Last week I was skeptical of SurveyUSA’s poll showing an electorate that voted for John McCain 52-43…but we actually found it at a 52-41 McCain advantage.

None of this should be surprising: it’s an off-election year, the President will not be on the ticket, the economy is widely and accurately considered to be awful, and the current ruling parties of both states are widely and accurately seen to be part of the problem. Deed’s specific problem is that he got the nomination by not being Moran or McAuliffe… which wouldn’t have been a problem at all if the VA GOP hadn’t decided to run somebody credible. But the VA GOP did, and now comes the unseemly scramble on the Democrats’ side to hold the governorship. Continue reading PPP: McDonnell/Deeds 51/37.

McDonnell/Deeds 55/40, curse it.

[Another UPDATE]: Yeah, yeah, yeah: I mucked the name up thoroughly. Sue me.

I say ‘curse it’ because if McDonnell had been just one point lower the title could have been

McDonnell/Deeds: 54/40, no fight.

Anyway, more details here (via @PatrickRuffini). August should prove interesting…

Moe Lane

PS: McDonnell for Governor. Contribute here.

Crossposted to RedState.

With a day to go in the Virginia Democratic Gubernatorial Primary…

…the carpetbagger from New York and the brother of the anti-Semite are falling behind the guy who keeps hitting people with his car. PPP’s poll is especially good news for the Guy With The Car’s campaign, but it’ll probably still be a nail-biter for the Other side tomorrow. Unless another six polls come out that confirm PPP’s, of course. Or turnout exceeds the five percent estimated for tomorrow’s primary.

Jim Geraghty (who originally provided a version of the above snark, by the way) has more; he thinks that the Guy With The Car can give GOP candidate Bob McDonnell a good run for his money. He certainly doesn’t think that the Brother To The Anti-Semite is going to pull this one off (and that’s a shame, particularly if said Anti-Semite gets indicted this summer). Guess we’ll see…

Moe Lane

Crossposted to RedState.