Tag: early voting

So, I early-voted today.

Largely because I’d rather do it now than do it next week with two kids in tow (thank you, Maryland state government, for giving the kids two days off for Election Day).  Straight GOP ticket, of course; where there wasn’t a Republican listed I wrote in my own name.  I’ll go down swinging, thank you kindly.

However… interestingly, when I asked the election judges how the early voting was going they said it was actually pretty busy: on par, in fact, with a Presidential year.  This being Maryland, where the only ostensibly competitive race on my ballot was the county executive one*… that’s kind of surprising, really.  And, try as I might: I can’t figure out how that could be bad for the GOP, either.  I mean, again: it’s Maryland.

Moe Lane

*Which, freakishly, we might actually win.

Quote of the Day, RELYING On The Ground Game Is A Bad Sign edition.

Don’t get me wrong: Barack Obama’s 2008 and 2012 ground game was great – at getting Barack Obama elected, at least – and the Democrats were not shy in confidently claiming that they had converted that success into a more general system that would allow them to retain the Senate and make up lost territory in the states. Which is fine: bragging is one of the pleasures of winning. One must expect it.

This is not bragging.

Democrats are praying their ground game will save them from a crushing defeat in next month’s midterm elections.

This is what you say when ‘crushing defeat’ is something that you aspire to. We’ll see how the early voting goes (check here for a good, balanced look at the running totals), but so far I’m not particularly worried about that.

First look: the Democrats’ disappointing (to them) Early Vote totals.

Last political post of the evening – I’m sure that you’re all sick of them, too – but this analysis of the WaPo pretty much sums it up:

Here’s the overarching takeaway: In basically every state where we have good data available, Democrats performed worse than they did in 2008 but better than they did in 2010. And if you extrapolate the shift to the entire statewide vote, we’ve got a very close race in store.

Major caveat: the states that we want to know most about – OH, NH, WI – do not have complete information.  OH EV is definitely down in key Democratic counties, compared to four years ago; WI, likewise.  NH… beats me, nobody’s paid too much attention to it.  But nowhere in the WaPo’s list are we seeing more Democrats voting than four years ago; and nowhere are we seeing less Republicans.  This is eating up the Democrats’ vote margins, which both sides agree are starkly necessary to offset the Republicans’ same-day voting advantage. And since Republican strategists are also expecting to do better on Election Day than we did four years ago, well…

Tweet/YouTube of the Day, Chris Wallace Makes Axelrod Squirm edition.

Oh, this is entertaining:

For those without video: Chris Wallace points out that early voting in Ohio kind of, well, sucks for the Democrats – as in, ACCORDING TO THE ROMNEY CAMPAIGN (this is important), it’s at the point where the net gain for the Republicans will wipe out Obama’s 2008 margin of victory in Ohio. This is important because Republicans traditionally do better on Election Day voters than Democrats; if that holds true (which is quietly conceded by pretty much everyone), then Ohio is going to go for Romney. Continue reading Tweet/YouTube of the Day, Chris Wallace Makes Axelrod Squirm edition.

Gallup: Erm, that early voting advantage for Obama? Well… it’s sort of, um, yeah, NOT THERE.

Not even a little.

Romney currently leads Obama 52% to 45% among voters who say they have already cast their ballots. However, that is comparable to Romney’s 51% to 46% lead among all likely voters in Gallup’s Oct. 22-28 tracking polling. At the same time, the race is tied at 49% among those who have not yet voted but still intend to vote early, suggesting these voters could cause the race to tighten. However, Romney leads 51% to 45% among the much larger group of voters who plan to vote on Election Day, Nov. 6.

Gallup’s showing that 15% of the electorate has already voted; 33% currently say that they have already voted or plan to; and estimate that 36% of the electorate will be early voting this year.  In case you were wondering, at this point in 2008 Barack Obama was winning all three categories in the previous paragraph by comfortable margins: 53/43 among already-voted, 54/40 among plan-to-vote-early, 50/44 among vote-on-Election-Day.  That link’s via Dave Weigel (who also helpfully offers up the Obama campaign’s rebuttal of state polls without noting that we are constantly seeing inflated reports of early voting on the state level*); the whole thing’s via Jim Geraghty’s Daily Jolt (alas, NRO is down right now, so no direct link). Continue reading Gallup: Erm, that early voting advantage for Obama? Well… it’s sort of, um, yeah, NOT THERE.