Virginia Senate control hangs by thread.

The Washington Post sums it up: at least six seats lost by the Democrats (including their House Minority Leader) in the House of Delegates and either one (Bill Stanley over Roscoe Reynolds) or two (Bryce Reeves leads Edd Houck by 86 votes) in the state Senate.  If it’s one, the Democrats retain control of the state Senate; if it’s two, then the Senate is tied and the Lieutenant Governor breaks all ties.  The Democrats are in that kind of jubilant despair that you get when things aren’t quite as bad as you thought that they were going to be; public relief aside, losing your House Minority Leader* isn’t good news.  Particularly since (as Larry Sabato noted last night) Virginia’s Senate redistricting process was in the hands of the Democrats and they still lost at least one seat.  That’s not good news for Democrats on the national level. Continue reading Virginia Senate control hangs by thread.

Maryland planning more stealth tax hikes on poor?

In a socially-acceptable way, of course: ie, via another hike in the tax on tobacco.  The “Maryland Citizens’ Health Initiative” – a name whose hint of subtle menace should make small-government types involuntarily shiver – looking to raise it by a buck a pack, because… well, pretty much because they want people to quit smoking, and taxing it through the ceiling is supposed to accomplish that.  And it might… except for one minor little detail.  You see, Maryland’s state sales tax on tobacco is currently two dollars; over in Virginia it’s thirty cents.

You do the math.
Continue reading Maryland planning more stealth tax hikes on poor?

Gov. Bob McDonnell (R, VA) on short list for VP?

That’s one potential conclusion that you can draw from today’s and yesterday’s Quinnipiac polls looking at Virginia political conditions.  Admittedly, they’re just one firm’s polls; also admittedly, anyone likely to be reading this is a hardcore political junky anyway, so we might as well take a look.

Yesterday’s Q-poll looked at Governor McDonnell’s popularity rating*, which is – to be modest about it – practically off of the charts at 61/21.  Those numbers represent a 67/17 favorable rating with independents, a barely underwater 39/40 among Democrats… and a 46/32 favorable rating with African-American voters, which presumably should have people perking up at this point – not that it would last long in a hypothetical 2012 Presidential election contest against Obama, of course.  Still, ablative armor is still armor, and the unique nature of Virginia’s gubernatorial situation applies here.  Bob McDonnell can’t run again for Governor in 2013 any which way anyway; and even an unsuccessful Vice Presidential run would not necessarily stop him from running for Senate in 2014, should Mark Warner (who is also very popular in Virginia) decide that he’d rather run for Governor again in 2013.  Or even if Senator Warner decides to stay in the Senate, for that matter. Continue reading Gov. Bob McDonnell (R, VA) on short list for VP?

Gerry Connolly (D, VA) concedes VA in 2012.

Shocking.  I mean that literally: the control chip must have shorted out, or something.  Representative Connolly finally admitted something that we all already knew: forget about what the 2008 map looked like.  This is going to be a 2004 election, or maybe a 2000 election:

Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.) said if the 2012 presidential election was held today, President Barack Obama wouldn’t win Virginia, a state he carried in 2008.

Speaking on local Washington radio station WTOP Friday, Connolly said, “In my opinion, no, today he would not win the state.”

But, with more than a year before Election Day, Connolly said Obama still has time to regain the momentum he had in the last election.

Indeed, he has time.  Whether he will have the opportunity or the ability to regain that momentum is another, much more entertaining, question.

Continue reading Gerry Connolly (D, VA) concedes VA in 2012.

The RGA may be chuckling…

… (so sayeth Jim Geraghty, at least) at the way that Maryland probably will have to raise taxes to fix its budget shortfall, while Virginia will instead be trying to decide what to do with its budget surplus*: but as a Maryland resident I am finding that I don’t quite find the joke all that funny.  Particularly since Governor Martin O’Malley (D) is apparently planning to go for raising the gas tax again; which is to say, something unimaginative and counter-productive.

(pause)

Well, as above: so below.

Moe Lane

*I cannot wait for Tim Kaine to run for Senate next year, by the way.  I absolutely cannot wait.  And may O’Malley end up doing for Maryland and the DGA what Kaine did for Virginia and the DNC.

Tim Kaine running for VA-SEN, because God loves me.

Jim Geraghty has the report.

And it is my devout hope that Tim Kaine brings the same competence and drive to the upcoming Senate election in Virginia that Tim Kaine previously brought to the Chris Christie, Bob McDonnell, Scott Brown, Martha Roby, Mo Brooks, Rick Crawford, Tim Griffin, Steve Womack, Paul Gosar, Ben Quayle, David Schweikert, Jeff Denham, Scott Tipton, Cory Gardner, Steve Southerland, Rich Nugent, Daniel Webster, Dennis A. Ross, Allen West, Sandy Adams, David Rivera, Rob Woodall, Austin Scott, Raúl Labrador, Joe Walsh, Robert Dold, Adam Kinzinger, Randy Hultgren, Bobby Schilling, Todd Rokita, Larry Bucshon, Todd Young, Tim Huelskamp, Kevin Yoder, Mike Pompeo, Jeff Landry, Andy Harris, Dan Benishek, Bill Huizenga, Justin Amash, Tim Walberg, Chip Cravaack, Alan Nunnelee, Steven Palazzo, Vicky Hartzler, Billy Long, Joe Heck, Frank Guinta, Charles Bass, Jon Runyan, Steve Pearce, Michael Grimm, Nan Hayworth, Chris Gibson, Richard Hanna, Ann Marie Buerkle, Renee Ellmers, Rick Berg, Steve Chabot, Bill Johnson, Steve Stivers, Jim Renacci, Bob Gibbs, James Lankford, Mike Kelly, Pat Meehan, Mike Fitzpatrick, Tom Marino, Lou Barletta, Tim Scott, Jeff Duncan, Trey Gowdy, Mick Mulvaney, Kristi Noem, Chuck Fleischmann, Scott DesJarlais, Diane Black, Stephen Fincher, Bill Flores, Quico Canseco, Blake Farenthold, Scott Rigell, Robert Hurt, Morgan Griffith, Jaime Herrera Beutler, David McKinley, Sean Duffy, Reid Ribble, John Boozman, Marco Rubio, Dan Coats, Jerry Moran, Rand Paul, Roy Blunt, Kelly Ayotte, John Hoeven, Rob Portman, Pat Toomey, Mike Lee, Mark Kirk, Ron Johnson, Rick Scott, Terry Branstad, Sam Brownback, Paul LePage, Rick Snyder, Susana Martinez, John Kasich, Mary Fallin, Tom Corbett, Bill Halsam, Matt Mead, and Scott Walker races.

Moe Lane (crosspost)

Tim Kaine should run for VA-SEN.

The word is that Tim Kaine (former governor of Virginia and current head of the DNC) is on the verge of declaring his candidacy for the Democratic nomination for Virginia Senator, and I for one support that move thoroughly.  Why?  Well, because of his record.  Below is a chart comparing the number of Democrats (and Democratic-controlled legislatures) at the start of Kaine’s tenure in January 2009 with the number of Democrats now (March 2011):

Jan 2009 Mar 2011
House 256 192
Senate 59 53
Governor 28 20
State Leg. 62 43

That is precisely the kind of campaigning record that I like to see from a Democratic nominee.  Especially the state legislature numbers: the first three categories all had their own dedicated groups entrusted with Embracing The Fail for the Democrats, but the DNC neglected the state houses in a Census year. And goodness gracious, but it showed.  So run, Timmy.  Please.

Please.

Moe Lane (crosspost)

Abortion clinic reform passes Virginia Senate.

The bill requires that facilities that perform more than five first trimester abortions per month be subject to the same regulations as hospitals, which will hopefully help keep down the kind of abuses that were documented here by Live Action (and, much more horrifyingly, the atrocities committed in Pennsylvania by Kermit Gosnell).  This rather commonsense consistency in regulating abortions would be normally out of reach of the pro-life movement, as the Virginia Senate is 22/18 Democratic/Republican: however, two Democrats switched their votes after a parliamentary procedure forced them to take a stand on the bill.  This made the vote 20/20, thus allowing Lt. Governor Bill Bolling to break the tie.

Because elections matter.

People may also remember that this has been building up since August of 2010, when Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli ruled that abortion facilities could be regulated as if they were hospitals – which ruling helped set up this bill.

Because elections matter.

The bill now goes to Governor Bob McDonnell, who will sign it.

Because elections matter.

Moe Lane (crosspost)

Jimmy Webb (D, VA) cuts and runs.

Just couldn’t handle the thought of running again for VA-SEN, apparently – although I’m sure that the lack of money didn’t help much there, either.  Or the fact that Webb was practically guaranteed a messy primary, thanks to his race-related thoughtcrime last year.  What ever it was, this isn’t a surprise, of course: it was obvious last week that Webb didn’t have the right stuff to run again in a year where things weren’t guaranteed to go his way.  I wonder whether enabling the extremist agenda of the exact same people who spit on his troops was worth it to the man?

…Actually, no, I really could care less whether it did or not.

Moe Lane (crosspost)

PS: Please run Tim Kaine for VA-SEN, Democrats. Please, please, please, please, please, please run Tim Kaine.