#rsrh Will the GOP take the Senate?

…I don’t know, ladies and gentlemen.  To more or less quote Wellington: it will be a close-run thing; a damned close-run thing.

Here’s the situation right now (and I’m not bothering with links):

  • There are not going to be any Democratic pickups.  New Hampshire, Missouri, Ohio, & North Carolina have faded; Kentucky was never as endangered at it looked, and after Conway panicked last week and threw that ridiculous attack ad, the election was effectively over; and Florida is even now melting down for the Democratic candidate.  Let’s not even bring up Alvin Greene.  Net change: 0.
  • Arkansas, Indiana, and North Dakota have been conceded to the Republican party.  Net change: +3 GOP.
  • Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are approaching that status.  Sestak has been reduced to using dog feces as a campaign prop and Feingold is practicing his narrative for the 2012 primaries.  Net change: +2 GOP.
  • Colorado, Illinois, and Nevada are all going to be tight races: but neither Giannoulias nor the two Democratic incumbents have been able to knock down their challengers.  We’re going to hear about the ‘margin of cheating’ at least two of these races, but I’m saying that the trend goes our way.  Net change: +3 GOP.
  • That’s +8 GOP, or 49 Republican seats.  We need two more for the majority; for that matter, merely having one more will make the Obama administration personally responsible for every unpopular piece of legislation that comes out of the 112th Congress.

California. Connecticut.  Washington.  West Virginia.  I’d argue any one of those, for admittedly different reasons in each case; can we get two of them?   …Maybe.   And if we do only get two, one of them will pretty much have to be Washington state.  It’s the one closest in terms of vote percentages, and the other three are too disimilar to each other to really be part of any kind of common trend, unless the common trend is DOUBLE-DOOM.  Because we’re already in DOOM territory here, honestly.

Moe Lane

Cook’s DOOMList: 10/28/2010 edition.

This may be the penultimate DOOMList from Cook with regard to the House: it’s the Friday before the election and there’s just not much time left for tracking the ongoing Democratic party’s synchronized mass career implosion.  Which is not to say that more extinction events won’t occur, but there’s a limit to how fast Cook can write them down.

Candidate District Ranking Challenger
Costa CA-20 Toss-Up Andy Vidak
Boyd FL-02 Lean R Steve Southerland
Marshall GA-08 Lean R Austin Scott
Minnick ID-01 Toss-Up Raul Labrador
Frank MA-04 Lean D Sean Bielat
Pingree ME-01 Lean D Dean Scontras
Heinrich NM-01 Toss-Up Jon Barela
Bishop NY-01 Toss-Up Randy Altschuler
Open TN-08 Likely R Stephen Fincher
Ortiz TX-27 Lean D Blake Farenthold
Connolly VA-11 Toss-Up Keith Fimian
Larsen WA-02 Toss-Up John Koster

I mildly regret to say that the latest readjustments included three that favored the Democratic party – two of which were to the benefit of Democratic incumbents.  It is regrettable to see any Democrat slip from our fingers, of course… but looking  at the list above, I think that we’ll all bear up under the crushing disappointment, somehow.  Particularly if Barney Frank continues to spiral inward…

Moe Lane (crosspost)

New Alaska election write-in rules eliminate ‘Lisa M.’ gambit.

The above quote comes from a colleague, upon hearing the news that a fairly successful ‘get your name on the write-in list’ registration drive was formed in response to the Alaskan Supreme Court’s decision to suddenly make write-in candidate lists available for voters.  You see, if you look at the old list you’ll see that there’s already a “Lisa M.” on there (Lisa M. Lackey); and if you look at the original article you’ll see that anybody who requests the write-in list will have his or her ballot separated out, in order to facilitate any possible appeals.  That means that it’s going to be fairly easy to find all the flawed ballots where the voter was too unclear about which ‘Lisa M.’ was meant.

Hey.  Rules are rules.  What are we supposed to do, ignore the courts?

Moe Lane (crosspost)

PS: Joe Miller for Senate.

Clinton tried to get Meek out of FL-SEN race.

So, let’s sum up the White House’s thinking on how to salvage the Florida Senate race, five days before the election. They had a choice between:

  • The guy who is a former state trooper, former state Democratic legislator, four-term Democratic Congressman, and the duly-chosen Democratic nominee for FL-SEN black; and
  • The guy who is a long-term Republican legislator and current governor of Florida who has shamelessly switched positions on every single ideological and/or political stance that might get him more votes white.

Which one do you think that they picked?

That’s right, they went with the white dude: they sent former President Clinton to try to get Kendrick Meek to drop out of the race, and apparently almost succeeded. Sure, the White House is claiming to not know anything about any of this – but then, they would. Alas, that argument doesn’t pass the smell test. The message was sent using Bill Clinton – and Clinton’s own people are confirming, on the record, that he was actively working to get Meek to drop – and that just doesn’t happen unless it’s cleared at the top. The very top*. Continue reading Clinton tried to get Meek out of FL-SEN race.

Remember November: The Final Act.

The last video in this series from the RGA, and it ends strong:

Remember November: The Final Act from Republican Governors Association on Vimeo.

…but there’s one thing that I want to push back on. I hear a lot of people talking about ‘taking America back;’ and that’s just plain wrong. I understand the sentiment, but it’s wrong.

IT WAS NEVER THE DEMOCRATS’ TO TAKE AWAY. No matter what the Democrats’ leadership thinks. Delivering that truth to the current ruling party has been the over-arcing message of this election cycle, and it all comes to a head on Tuesday. So go out there and vote.

Moe Lane (crosspost)

PS:
Elections.
Have.
Consequences.

#rsrh Democrats Co-opt Stewart/Colbert Infotainment Event.

(Via Hot Air Headlines) Well, they always had planned to do that  (which wasn’t exactly the best-kept secret in the world), but now it’s kind of obvious.  This is, in fact, turning into the Great Democratic Hope of 2010: the goal is to convert that potent, potent force known as the ‘youth vote’ into a mighty hammer of civic engagement that will keep in office… the political party that is responsible for roughly one in five of them currently being out of work.

But OfA is planning a phone bank for right afterward!  Personally, I’d have waited an hour or two to give all those volunteering livers a chance to metabolize the ethyl alcohol that will undoubtedly be consumed on Saturday, but don’t mind me, grasshoppers.

Moe Lane

Umm. Did Mass Effect *I* require an internet connection…

…to play?  I ask because I just got my copy of Mass Effect, and it seems to be requiring that.

Bear in mind, obviously I have an internet connection; and I’m only playing it to build my Adept up and give her all the cool options for Mass Effect 2… so that I can have a really cool character for Mass Effect 3.  Hmm.  I’m starting to detect a pattern of addiction, here.  Anyway, I can obviously play ME even if I need Net access; but was this a usual feature of the first game?