Tag: dccc

Why the Democratic party is not taking the House back.

OK, now that I’ve read this Politico article about how the supposedly soon-to-be-triumphant Democratic party* is not going to get more than five seats at best (and may actually lose seats), and I’ve stopped laughing, let me do my civic duty for the day and explain what actually happened.  There are three real reasons for this slow motion car wreck, and none of them are redistricting, outside money, and/or chicanery:

  • Nancy Pelosi.  There is a reason why Speakers of the House tend to resign after being handed an electoral shellacking of the kind that was handed to Madam Speaker in 2010, as events since have shown. The woman is simply weaker as House Minority Leader than she would have been if she had never been Speaker of the House at all; less ability to command others, and decreased deference when it’s not to her face.  There are people in the Democratic party who would rather badly like to actually react realistically to what happened in 2010, even if their solutions may not be realistic… but as long as Nancy Pelosi is running things, they won’t.  She doesn’t think that she did anything really wrong.  I understand that Pelosi is an earner, but honestly: get her out of the house and give her a Super PAC, then. (By the way: most of the ostensible answers in the Politico article happen to come back to the meta-problem – for Democrats, anyway – of Nancy Pelosi keeping her job.)
  • Barack Obama. You can argue about whether Barack Obama is a drag on House races or not, but it’s largely academic anyway: Obama for America simply can’t make itself care about the downticket races when they’re in trouble.  Which is why House races have dramatically shifted towards the GOP in the last month. If you’re a Democratic candidate in a swing state, you might have seen the President stop by and help you out.  Might.  If not… well?  Good luck?
  • Wave election fatigue.  …We’ve had three wave elections in a row: two Democratic ones, and one Republican one that wiped out the first two.  We’re pretty much out of low-hanging fruit. We’ll have some more in 2014 – it takes two to three terms for a Member of Congress to decide that he or she is invincible – but right now everybody’s mostly hunkered down and taking no changes.

And… that’s how it is.  With one important caveat: none of this would really matter if the Democrats happened to have, say, a six point advantage in the electorate this year.

Moe Lane

*Actually, to be fair to Politico they actually referred to Democrats as “a party that has a legitimate shot at keeping the presidency and the Senate on Tuesday.”

October surprise: Obama’s killing Democratic House prospects.

Let me just list the House races that Democratic strategists are willing to admit – some, even by name! – as having been endangered by Barack Obama’s sub-par October performance.  Just list.

And then there’s the generic ballot, which has gone from plus-Democrat to even-steven. Also note the ostensible swing-state nature of most of the races on that list; you can be certain that official political operatives from both parties have.  All in all, this is pretty good news to have, less than two weeks out – both on the Congressional, and the Presidential, level.

Needless to say, the Republicans in all of the races above could use whatever support that you can muster.  The Democrats were counting on taking or holding all of those seats.  Deny them the satisfaction.

Moe Lane

http://sulia.com/channel/capitol-hill-insiders/f/41a85fb6-5ca1-41a4-96b9-9ed885ad13f9/?source=twitter

#rsrh DCCC admits DOOM in NC-08, FL-18: SEIU does likewise in WI-08.

I first saw the tip-off from @mattmackowiak, but said tweet unfortunately needs some typos corrected:

  • FL-18 (not FL-08): “The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee canceled a week of airtime in Rep. Allen West’s (R-Fla.) district starting Oct. 9, according to multiple sources tracking the buy.”
  • NC-08: “The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee canceled a second week of advertising in Kissell’s 8th district. Roll Call has learned that the DCCC’s independent expenditure arm canceled a reservation for advertising in the Charlotte media market from Oct. 9-15. This comes after the DCCC canceled a reservation from Oct. 2-8, as first reported by Roll Call.“
  • WI-08 (not WI-07): “The Service Employees International Union [NOT the DCCC – ML] has canceled a previously scheduled television ad buy in support of businessman Jamie Wall’s (D) challenge of Rep. Reid Ribble (R).”

Nonetheless: good news for the Republican House majority.  Whether the Democrats like to admit it or not, not having the money to protect one beleaguered incumbent and challenge two House freshmen is rarely good news.

Well, it’s rarely good news for the party without the money.  I imagine that the GOP finds this very good news indeed.

Moe Lane

 

#rsrh Wow. A group that’s DUMBER than the DCCC! Amazing.

The story thus far: Sheldon Adelson is a billionaire who is supporting Mitt Romney in this election, which is why the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) recently accused him of being a pimp for the Chinese mob.  Mr. Adelson is also a Jewish billionaire supporting Romney, which is why the National Jewish Democratic Council (NJDC) followed suit.  Mr. Adelson – who, by the way, spends a good deal of time fighting the after-effects of human trafficking – responded by (as I put it last week) casting Summon Elite Lawyer Ninja Squad, and the DCCC promptly caved.  Apparently the NJDC did not, which is why Mr. Adelson is now suing them for $60 million.

I note all of this because today’s Breitbart interview with prominent Democrat Alan Dershowitz is fascinating in its subtext – actually, it’s fascinating in its text, too: Continue reading #rsrh Wow. A group that’s DUMBER than the DCCC! Amazing.

#rsrh DCCC crawls, abases itself for the amusement of Republican Sheldon Adelson.

This is a marvelous sentence.  I love reading this sentence.  It is a sentence full of pure, innocent enjoyment:

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee issued a public apology Thursday afternoon to billionaire casino magnate Sheldon Adelson for charging that the Republican mega donor was tied to the Chinese mob and a prostitution ring.

I’d give you the background, except that you can see it all, right there: the DCCC accused Mr. Adelson of being a pimp for the Chinese mob, Mr. Adelson cast Summon Elite Lawyer Ninja Squad in response, and then the DCCC suddenly realized that they were in deep, deep legal trouble. It’ll be interesting whether or not this is enough to get Adelson’s attack dogs to heel; personally, I’d want at least an actual scalp or two, but then I’m a partisan political hack, not a billionaire.

#rsrh Politico: there are 18 CONFIRMED fools in the Democratic House Caucus.

Yes, yes, I know: the real number is much larger.  But note the use of the word confirmed: that term was not chosen at random.  Observe, from this story about incumbent House Democrats sensibly avoiding their dues to the DCCC, thus saving their precious campaign money to save their own seats:

As of June 30, 64 Democrats — around one-third of the entire caucus — hadn’t paid anything to the DCCC, according to a party document provided to POLITICO. Another 109 members had paid only a portion of what they owe in dues, which are calculated based on seniority and committee assignments.

There are 191 House Members. Subtract the 64 who haven’t paid any dues to the DCCC and 109 for those who have only paid a portion of them, that leaves 18 Members of Congress who have paid their dues in full. And, since it is reasonable to equate “anybody who throws money down the DCCC rat-hole while Nancy Pelosi is still House Minority Leader” with “fool” it then follows that AT LEAST eighteen members of the current Democratic House Caucus are self-confessed idiots.

That’s logic, that is.

Moe Lane

#rsrh NRCC passes DCCC in fundraising in June.

Good news for the NRCC, of course – but it’s also kind of anticlimactic, at this stage of the game.  The DCCC was ahead last month, the NRCC was ahead the month before that… I kind of expect that we’re going to see the two committees fighting it out for pole position for the rest of this election cycle.

Besides, Stu Rothenberg doesn’t thinks that it matters, anyway: Continue reading #rsrh NRCC passes DCCC in fundraising in June.

DCCC covering up stalking videos?

People may recall that Politico published a story several days ago cataloging what appears to be a somewhat alarming trend: to wit, videos showing ostensible ‘tracking’ of Republican candidates by individuals. I say ostensible because the way that the videos come across are as rather obsessive stalking of said candidates. For example: while it is understood that a candidate will be followed around, casing a candidates’s house from several different angles (account name: WI08RawFootage) or deliberately putting another candidate’s address (account name: AR01RawFootage) online, is generally considered to be, well, creepy. And that’s what is happening.

Now here’s the thing. As Politico noted, the DCCC itself is apparently “unapologetic” about these activities, and ready to justify this practice:

House Republicans have spent this entire Congress trying to hide that they’re protecting benefits for millionaires and perks for themselves instead of protecting the middle class, but we won’t let them keep it secret any longer,” Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesman Jesse Ferguson wrote in an email. Democratic officials said placing the videos on the DCCC’s website and YouTube serve a useful purpose, most notably making the footage available to friendly outside groups for use in TV commercials. That way, they don’t violate laws against coordinating with those groups.

Which is a very interesting statement, and one which will be revisited in a little bit… because there’s something that Politico didn’t catch: the accounts that Politico found have been sanitized.

Just not well enough. Continue reading DCCC covering up stalking videos?

Democrats reduced to hiding in bushes, posting creepy stalker videos.

I’m not joking about either. Ohio Rep. Jim Renacci (R) told Politico that a neighbor had caught somebody doing precisely that, and I’m pretty sure Politico believes him: they have collected some really, really creepy videos (including one targeting Renacci) of what is apparently an organized effort to sit outside candidate/legislator houses and businesses and… film them.  In many cases, going for a 360 degree shot that shows the entire exterior – and if you haven’t already gotten a certain wariness from this new wrinkle in the political process, then really, that last bit should be setting off alarm bells.  There’s a point where this sort of thing becomes ‘casing’ a place; looking for weak points in building security qualifies.

The truly crazy bit? This is apparently under the aegis of the Democrats themselves: “Democrats, on the other hand, insist the videos are fair game — and are unapologetic about the hardball tactics.”  The videos are apparently being sponsored by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (at least, that’s how I’m interpreting DCCC spokesman Jesse Ferguson’s defiant defense of the practice); certainly there seems to be a common format, and it’s been done in multiple locations at this point.  Which basically means that the DCCC is out and out stalking the Republican party.

Again, I’m not joking.  Lurking in bushes.

Continue reading Democrats reduced to hiding in bushes, posting creepy stalker videos.