Tag: lies

The December Rasmussen Public Trust Numbers.

The full report isn’t up yet, but these are the reported Rasmussen trust numbers for December. Short version: seven out of ten for the GOP, two ties, and the Democrats get to be more trusted on education.

Dec-09 Nov-09
Issue Dem GOP Diff Dem GOP Diff Shift
Health Care 43% 46% (3) 42% 44% (2) (1)
Education 45% 39% 6 41% 39% 2 4
Social Security 43% 43% – 41% 41% – –
Abortion 39% 46% (7) 38% 43% (5) (2)
Economy 37% 48% (11) 36% 48% (12) 1
Taxes 38% 47% (9) 36% 47% (11) 2
Iraq 34% 49% (15) 38% 45% (7) (8)
Nat’l Security 35% 52% (17) 37% 50% (13) (4)
Gov’t Ethics 29% 29% – 31% 34% (3) 3
Immigration 32% 47% (15) 33% 45% (12) (3)

Continue reading The December Rasmussen Public Trust Numbers.

The November Rasmussen Public Trust Numbers.

I had actually put this together on Sunday, but: well, new baby. Rasmussen’s new trust numbers are out. The short version is: eight for ten for the GOP, and the Democrats’ free-fall from last month have been mostly reset back to September’s numbers…

Nov-09 Oct-09
Issue Dem GOP Diff Dem GOP Diff Shift
Health Care 42% 44% (2) 40% 46% (6) 4
Education 41% 39% 2 38% 43% (5) 7
Social Security 41% 41% – 37% 45% (8) 8
Abortion 38% 43% (5) 35% 47% (12) 7
Economy 36% 48% (12) 35% 49% (14) 2
Taxes 36% 47% (11) 35% 50% (15) 4
Iraq 38% 45% (7) 31% 50% (19) 12
Nat’l Security 37% 50% (13) 31% 54% (23) 10
Gov’t Ethics 31% 34% (3) 29% 33% (4) 1
Immigration 33% 45% (12) 33% 40% (7) (5)

…except for health care, of course.  The Democrats seem to have lost that particular automatic lead. And, on reflection: there’s not much to say about this, except that it’s amazing how quickly a new equilibrium can form in politics. Last year the GOP was trying to get itself more trusted on one out of ten, let alone eight…

Moe Lane

Crossposted to RedState.

Looking at the Cook Competitive Race Chart.

[UPDATE]: Welcome, Instapundit readers. And AoSHQ readers, too.

Looking at the Cook Political Report’s latest competitive race chart is in itself informative – the short version is that of the top 108 competitive races, the following ratios apply:

Dem GOP
Likely D 45 0
Leans D 23 1
Toss-up D 12 0
Toss-up R 0 3
Leans R 1 8
Likely R 0 15
Total 81 27

…but there’s some interesting things that can be seen with a little sorting.  Below is a chart of competitive seats, sorted by Cook Partisan Rating:

Continue reading Looking at the Cook Competitive Race Chart.

Rasmussen: 54/42 against Pelosi’s health care rationing bill.

Give House Democrats credit: their latest version of the health care rationing bill actually moved the numbers a little.  Just not in the way that they hoped.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi introduced the House version of health care reform legislation last week, but most voters are still opposed to the effort.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 42% now favor the health care plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats. That’s down from 45% a week ago but unchanged from two weeks ago.

Much obliged; the drop in support from the last time the Democrats unveiled a version of health care rationing was starting to abate, so having this handy reminder of who’s running Congress these days – and the implications – is really, really handy.  Some people might quibble that if Democrats wanted to be really helpful they’d have scheduled their latest announcement last Saturday, but I’m not greedy.  This will do nicely for tomorrow’s races.

Moe Lane

Crossposted to RedState.

NJ-GOV: New PPP, Rasmussen polls out.

And if you thought that yesterday’s semi-cryptic blog post from the former was just some prepare-the-Democrats-for-some-bad-news, and not an attempt to raise Republican hopes… well, you were right.

Chris Christie now leads Jon Corzine 42-38 in the race to be New Jersey’s next Governor, a slight increase from our poll two weeks that showed his advantage at 40-39.

In other words, the partisan Democratic polling firm is reporting that the race has shifted in Christie’s direction by three points, and now has a lead barely out of the MoE. Rasmussen likewise reports that Christie has increased his lead to 46/43, with Daggett at 7%, which is down four from last week.  But here’s what may be the important part of that report:

Christie leads by eight points among those who are certain they will show up and vote. A week ago, he was up by five among that group. Christie’s supporters are also less likely to say they might consider voting for someone else.

A week to go. Word is that Quinnipiac will have out something later this week; in the meantime, expect New Jersey to get inundated with even more campaign advertising and national scrutiny .

Moe Lane

PS: Christie for Governor.

Crossposted to RedState.

The October Rasmussen Trust numbers. (Ten for ten)

[UPDATE] Welcome, AoSHQ readers. And Instapundit readers.  And Jules Crittenden readers, too.  And Hot Air readers, of course.  I cover this every month, you know.

Rasmussen hasn’t written the article yet – but they put the new numbers on their BY THE NUMBERS page.  And it’s not pretty for Democrats:

October 2009 September 2009
Issue Dem GOP Diff Dem GOP Diff Shift
Health Care 40% 46% (6) 44% 44% – (6)
Education 38% 43% (5) 45% 40% 5 (10)
Social Security 37% 45% (8) 43% 41% 2 (10)
Abortion 35% 47% (12) 37% 44% (7) (5)
Economy 35% 49% (14) 39% 47% (8) (6)
Taxes 35% 50% (15) 40% 48% (8) (7)
Iraq 31% 50% (19) 37% 47% (10) (9)
Nat’l Security 31% 54% (23) 39% 51% (12) (11)
Gov’t Ethics 29% 33% (4) 34% 35% (1) (3)
Immigration 33% 40% (7) 33% 45% (12) 5

Note the dives on… everything, really, except immigration issues: the GOP increased its lead in 9 out of 10 categories since last month. But particularly note the Health Care, Social Security, Economy, and Taxes numbers. Does the Democratic Party feel like demonizing their opponents on health care rationing some more? – because I think that the GOP can somehow manage to find the strength to keep bearing up under the Democrats’ scorn.

Moe Lane

Crossposted to RedState.

Rasmussen: 54/42 against health care rationing.

It would seem that finally putting out all the various versions, alternates, and fevered mutterings of what the Democrats are trying to call ‘health care reform’ has helped to clarify matters for voters some more. It’s just not clarifying matters in a fashion that will make the current ruling party happy. Rasmussen’s latest snapshot:

Now that the Senate Finance Committee has passed its version of health care reform, 42% of voters nationwide favor the health care reform plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats. That’s down two points from a week ago and down four from the week before.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 54% are opposed to the plan.

It is perhaps unkind to point out two details about the 42%:

  • The current state of affairs means that the number represents support for the hope that there will eventually be an acceptable health care bill.
  • Hope is not a plan.

…but it’s probably necessary.  Watching the… seven*?… Democratic factions try to reconcile the mess that they’ve created for themselves should be remarkably engrossing.

Moe Lane

*Well, you’ve got House progressives & Senate liberals; like vulnerable House members and ‘moderate’ Democratic Senators, there’s the House/Senate split on outlook to consider.  So that’s four.  Then there’s the House’s and the Senate’s leadership, with the two groups being barely civil to each other these days.  That’s two more.  And then there’s the White House, who pretty much caused this mess by letting the other six factions have free rein over the process.  So, seven.

Crossposted to RedState.

Symbolic gesture towards repealing DoMA made.

Progressive Democrats are invited by their party’s leadership to now shut up about the subject.

Let’s keep this one simple (H/T: AoSHQ Headlines):

Q. Why is it that a bill to repeal the Defense of Marriage Act – one with more than 90 Congressional supporters – will apparently not even make it to the House floor?
A. Because Rep. Barney Franks – who is not one of the supporters – was blunt about why he wasn’t a supporter: the Democrats don’t have the votes for it.

Q. Don’t the Democrats control Congress?
A. Yes.

(pause)

Q. Didn’t they campaign on this is…
A. (Interrupting) They lied.

Moe Lane

Crossposted to RedState.

The September Rasmussen Public Trust Numbers.

The Democrats may simply have to accept the fact that they no longer can automatically count on the trust of the American people on any topic.

September 2009 August 2009
Issue Dem GOP Diff Dem GOP Diff Shift
Health Care 44% 44% – 41% 44% (3) 3
Education 45% 40% 5 38% 41% (3) 8
Social Security 43% 41% 2 39% 43% (4) 6
Abortion 37% 44% (7) 36% 46% (10) 3
Economy 39% 47% (8) 40% 46% (6) (2)
Taxes 40% 48% (8) 35% 51% (16) 8
Iraq 37% 47% (10) 42% 42% – (10)
Nat’l Security 39% 51% (12) 43% 47% (4) (8)
Gov’t Ethics 34% 35% (1) 34% 31% 3 (4)
Immigration 33% 45% (12) 35% 43% (8) (4)

Seven out of ten, and one tie.  The good news for the Democrats is that they made some decent recoveries from August’s numbers; the bad news is that August was really bad for them, so they’re still trying to make up ground.  The most important/topical number there – health care – is probably their brightest spot, but being equally trusted on an issue when you’ve spent the last few years being clearly trusted is not the most welcome news in the world.  Particularly when ‘trusting the Democrat’ does not exclude ‘trusting the Democrat to vote the Republican position.’

Moving on: nice to see that the Government Ethics numbers are starting to consistently reflect objective reality, not to mention the Economy ones.  I’m interested how much of that is reflected by cap-and-trade – and how bringing that issue back will affect the Taxes question.

Moe Lane

Crossposted to RedState.

Gallup mutters about relationship between Dow, approval ratings.

Clearly in reference to Jim Cramer’s I’ve-been-saving-this-for-months revenge clip* of a few days ago, the Gallup organization would like you to know that there’s no historical relationship between a President’s approval rating and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

None at all.

Absolutely zero.

Mind you, that wasn’t the argument that got made – Cramer was arguing that this specific President’s disapproval ratings (via Gallup!) were being reflected in the S&P 500 going up – but nonetheless, Gallup felt the need to do that analysis.

Well.  Thanks for letting us know.

Moe Lane

PS: Yes, I see the large holes in Cramer’s theory.  So does Cramer, probably.  It’s still funny that Gallup felt the need to do some repair work here. Clumsily. Continue reading Gallup mutters about relationship between Dow, approval ratings.