PPP’s Tom Jensen has a problem.

As in, how to shout out a warning without… actually shouting out a warning.  In this case, he’s getting just a little worried about his fellow Democrats turning out.  To put his findings in handy table form:

Voters Percent
Estimated % R % D R 2009 R 2008 D 2009 D 2008 R D
VA 2.000 48% 44% 0.960 1.725 0.880 1.960 56% 45%
NJ 2.200 44% 51% 0.970 1.610 1.120 2.220 60% 50%

The voter numbers are in millions, and the percentage at the end represents the percentage of McCain/Obama voters of 2008 that PPP expects to vote in the 2009 elections. While this is not-precisely-horrible news for Corzine*, it’s not good news at all for the Democrats next year:

Maybe those numbers will improve some over the weekend- and Creigh Deeds and Jon Corzine certainly aren’t the best candidates- but if that pattern continues on into next year Republicans will win back the House.

The reason why is because there are a lot more Democrats in Congressional Districts that McCain won than vice versa: and there quite a few Democrats in districts that Obama didn’t actually win by all that much.  It’s going to be interesting to see how the state legislature races in NJ and VA play out this year; the results might possibly be even more of a harbinger than those of the governors races…

Moe Lane

*It would be good news, if more people actually liked Jon Corzine.  Or at least didn’t despise him.

Crossposted to RedState.

California taxpayer raid: “Think of it as a forced, interest-free loan…”

(h/t: Instapundit) California’s come up with another way to ensure that when the state finally crashes, it’s really going to crash:

California to withhold a bigger chunk of paychecks
The amount goes up 10% on Sunday as Sacramento borrows from taxpayers. Technically, it’s not an income tax increase: You’ll get the money back eventually.

Reporting from Los Angeles and Sacramento – Starting Sunday, cash-strapped California will dig deeper into the pocketbooks of wage earners — holding back 10% more than it already does in state income taxes just as the biggest shopping season of the year kicks into gear.

Technically, it’s not a tax increase, even though it may feel like one when your next paycheck arrives. As part of a bundle of budget patches adopted in the summer, the state is taking more money now in withholding, even though workers’ annual tax bills won’t change.

If I ever become a convert to Objectivism, it’ll be because of California: that state seems determined to ignore the elementary fiscal rule of Don’t spend money that you don’t have, you idjits. I realize that this sounds like a simplistic solution to what is a very complicated problem, but so is Robbing Peter to Pay Paul. Except that in this case it’s more like Robbing Peter and Paul while telling them that they’ll be getting the money back.  Unless they need to make the robbing permanent.  Which they probably will, because they got away with it in the first place, right?

I admit that this is harder to memorize.

Moe Lane

PS: Another bit of elementary fiscal wisdom: It is absurd to think that you can transfer 1.8 billion in funding from things that generate wealth (business) to things that consume it (government) without it having an effect on the larger economy. I mention this because said wisdom has unaccountably eluded everybody defending this policy as being not being all that bad.

PPS: Hey, do you know that a top Californian state official – Lt. Governor John Garamendi – is actually within the reach of at least one CD’s worth of voters?  He is, he is.  If you live in CA-10, by all means: show your disapproval by voting for David Harmer on Tuesday.

Crossposted to RedState.

The ‘Paranormal Activity’ mini-review.

A very taut film by a clever director who knew when to get out of the way and let the audience go ahead and scare itself. There’s a Paramount executive out there right now who is basking in the insane amount of profit that this film is going to gather for the studio. As a horror flick, it’s good; as a horror flick done on a $15,000 budget it’s freaking insanely good. It’s not perfect – there’s a couple of holes in the plot, and the ending I saw may be the weakest of the three – but it’s worth going to see in theaters.

Another thing the Corzine campaign would like you to ignore….

…regarding the Jason Shih drug bust: the fact that a Jason Shih of Paramus was on the Democrats’ payroll in 2006 (H/T: JammieWearingFool).  Complete coincidence.  Couldn’t possibly be the same person.  There must be thousands of Jason Shihs in New Jersey.

Actually, no, deja vu isn’t really the right reaction to this.

Crossposted to RedState.

Meanwhile, pay no attention to this drug bust in NJ.

The Corzine campaign wants it made CLEAR that Jason Shih is in no way, shape, or form involved with the releection campaign; that Mr. Shih is certainly not an assistant campaign director or staffer for the campaign; that they have no idea who Mr. Shih would even is, let alone why he would claim such a status; or why he would claim that the car that he was driving at the time of his drug bust was rented by the campaign, or why there were tickets to an Obama rally and other campaign paraphernalia mixed in with the drug paraphernalia.

Understand?  They want it made CLEAR.

Crossposted to RedState.

“…AND SMASH IT WITH A HAMMER!”

Plumcake of Manolo for the Big Girl – which is a fun read, by the way – has a post up on Disney Villainesses; it features Ursula of The Little Mermaid (which is my favorite Disney film) and Yzma of The Emperor’s New Groove (which is apparently everybody’s second favorite Disney film).  Plumcake, alas, had to give Yzma an honorable mention on account that she wasn’t really scary; which is true, but irrelevant.

Third favorite?  Mulan, probably: I like heroines with good tactical sense.

Moe Lane

PS: