Tag: doom

#rsrh QotD, Is He Feeling Well? Edition.

Greg Sargent actually writes something that’s moderately aware of objective reality. On President Obama’s upcoming rhetorical response to his upcoming thumping:

So look for [Obama] to seek the moral high ground by calling on Republicans to meet him on some sort of ideologically undefined but temperamentally soothing “common ground,” rather than calling on them to meet him in the “center.” Of course, what really matters is what Obama and Republicans actually do next year, not what they say they’re going to do. And they’re going to be at war.

Yup! It’s going to be a blast.

Moe Lane

For your amusement: an updated 2008 Obama ad.

It did not age well. Oh, my, did it not age well.

(Via Battle ’10) Although I suspect that the participants in said video would bitterly argue my observation, assuming that any of them are sober at this moment. No, wait, it’s 8 AM on the Left Coast; they won’t start the anticipatory heavy drinking until about 1 PM my time.

Moe Lane (crosspost)

PS: Vote.

PPS: Hey! If politics is Hollywood for the ugly, does that mean that Hollywood is politics for the stupid? Continue reading For your amusement: an updated 2008 Obama ad.

#rsrh The final Cook DOOMLists.

Rather than walk you through the latest changes – short version is that the sliding of the Democratic party’s House members into the abyss is operating more or less on schedule – I’d thought that I’d show you just how bad an election cycle it’s been for the Other Side. Here’s the House [UPDATE: the 2008  entries in each case are the first Cook surveys of the 2010 election cycle]:

11/1/2010 11/13/2008
Dem GOP Dem GOP
Likely D 19 1 28 0
Lean D 23 2 18 0
Toss-Up 49 1 2 5
Lean R 21 4 0 5
Likely R 8 7 0 24
Total 120 15 48 34
High-Risk 78 4 2 5

Continue reading #rsrh The final Cook DOOMLists.

Cook’s DOOMList: 10/28/2010 edition.

This may be the penultimate DOOMList from Cook with regard to the House: it’s the Friday before the election and there’s just not much time left for tracking the ongoing Democratic party’s synchronized mass career implosion.  Which is not to say that more extinction events won’t occur, but there’s a limit to how fast Cook can write them down.

Candidate District Ranking Challenger
Costa CA-20 Toss-Up Andy Vidak
Boyd FL-02 Lean R Steve Southerland
Marshall GA-08 Lean R Austin Scott
Minnick ID-01 Toss-Up Raul Labrador
Frank MA-04 Lean D Sean Bielat
Pingree ME-01 Lean D Dean Scontras
Heinrich NM-01 Toss-Up Jon Barela
Bishop NY-01 Toss-Up Randy Altschuler
Open TN-08 Likely R Stephen Fincher
Ortiz TX-27 Lean D Blake Farenthold
Connolly VA-11 Toss-Up Keith Fimian
Larsen WA-02 Toss-Up John Koster

I mildly regret to say that the latest readjustments included three that favored the Democratic party – two of which were to the benefit of Democratic incumbents.  It is regrettable to see any Democrat slip from our fingers, of course… but looking  at the list above, I think that we’ll all bear up under the crushing disappointment, somehow.  Particularly if Barney Frank continues to spiral inward…

Moe Lane (crosspost)

Cook’s DOOMList: 10/26/2010.

This week’s adjustment by Cook is not that extensive, but it’s a doozy:

Incumbent Republican
MA-06 John Tierney Bill Hudak
NJ-06 Frank Pallone Anna Little
NC-04 David Price BJ Lawson
OH-10 Dennis Kuchinich Peter Corrigan
OR-04 Peter DeFazio Art Robinson
TN-05 Jim Cooper David Hall
TX-25 Lloyd Doggett Donna Campbell

Those are all formerly-safe races that are now abruptly… not-safe. They’ve all gone from Safe Democratic to Likely Democratic, but this kind of movement is consistent with a continuing drift towards the GOP side.  It would be interesting to see what the Toss-Up and Lean Republican totals would look like right now if Cook was less conservative about assigning incumbents to the latter.  Also: look at some of those names.  There are some heavy hitters on the Democratic side on that list, and they’re even now being told the bad news.  Will a week be enough time to topple them?

I don’t know.  Let’s find out.

Moe Lane (crosspost)

New York Times: DOOM.

The actual title isn’t that, of course.  The actual title is “Democrats Counting on Strength of Obama’s Get-Out-the-Vote Network“… which is merely semantically equivalent to the word/phrase/meme “DOOM.”  If you’re “counting on” getting enough voters out there to erase your own, admitted failure to be the perceived front-runner, then you’ve already lost and you’re just trying to avoid a rout*.  Thus it was for the Republican party in 2008 and 2006; and thus it was for the Democratic party in 2004 and 2002.  In all four cycles the afflicted party spoke of last minute GOTV pushes and the base coming home and whatever sudden wild hope erupted in the last week before the polls opened, while the party that was ahead collectively smirked and resolutely declined to remember when they did the exact same thing.  Admittedly, it’s great fun to watch, assuming of course if it’s not happening to you.

However.  WE CAN STILL LOSE.  So if you can vote early and haven’t, do that today.  And vote a straight ticket.  Governor, Lt. Governor, state-wide offices, Senate, House, state House, state Senate, county officials, judges, sheriffs, sewer commissioner, town executives, dog-catcher ,or even coroner (if you live in Louisiana).  Clean house.  The more states we control next January, the more states we can keep the Democrats from implementing the redistricting plots that they are undoubtedly plotting right this second (gerrymandering schemes are a hobby for their activists, or perhaps ‘fetish’ would be a better word); plus, every Democrat unceremoniously booted from lower office is a Democrat who is no longer going to be advancing up the ladder for higher office**.  And, of course, the more Republicans we elect the better our bench gets.

Moe Lane (crosspost) Continue reading New York Times: DOOM.

Four out of five signs of DOOM.

Benjamin Sarlin has compiled a list of… well, five signs of DOOM: by his and my count we’ve hit four of them.  The fifth (We Totally Meant To Lose Anyway) will probably hit in force after the next time Cook and/or Rothenberg update their list of Democrats whose staffers need to update their resumes and/or start shredding the paperwork in anticipation of Darrell Issa’s 2011 Investigation-O-Rama.

But I’d add a sixth: GOTV Will Save Us! It’s an old crowd favorite, mostly because it’s not necessarily untrue.  GOTV can save you.  It never does, but it can.

Via Instapundit.

Moe Lane (crosspost) Continue reading Four out of five signs of DOOM.

Chris Matthews brings DOOM unto Jack Conway.

Yes. That Chris Matthews. Matthews apparently did not personally approve of the way that Jack Conway smeared Rand Paul with a recent scurrilous ad, and so took the opportunity to smack Conway around for over seven minutes of pretty much relentless, aggressive interviewing.

Yes, again: that Chris Matthews. As I remarked just now on Twitter, watching this was like watching Jack Conway get mauled by a Teletubbie.

H/T: Erick Erickson, on Twitter.

Moe Lane (crosspost)

PS: Rand Paul for Senate.

PPS: I believe that the DSCC may now start transferring money out of that race with a clear conscience.

#rsrh The hint of Senate DOOM.

For one brief – very brief – moment this morning the RCP forecast for the Senate (based on the rolling polling average, no Toss-ups) was at +10 GOP.  It then dropped down to +8 and then stabilized at +9.  Which is where it’s been for the last couple of days.

In and of itself?  Meaningless.  The polling average mechanism is merely a data point, and one whose meaning is often argued – particularly now, three weeks before the election.  But it is three weeks before the election, and it is possible to argue with a straight face that the GOP has a chance at flipping the Senate.  There were damn few people out there even six months ago who thought that such a thing was possible, and even fewer that were even willing to admit to the possibility in public.

Twenty-one days.

Moe Lane