So, I get forwarded this email blast from the go… the people over at Obama for America:
Yeah, the usual outrageous outrage from the outrageously outraged Left. So far, so typical. But then I noticed something: where’s the video link? Continue reading Obama for America’s quiet, nervous, base repair efforts.
…Wow. Let me just have a moment where I contemplate the fact that I got to write that sentence out. The pre-existing Democratic plan for the election went well and truly off of the rails early this cycle, huh?
:pause:
OK, moment’s done. Anyway: $114 million to $111 million; this total is Obama/DNC vs Romney/RNC, mind you. Note, by the way, that Romney’s releasing his cash-on-hand ($168 million) early and Obama has not. Since Obama only had $125 million at the end of July, it is exceedingly unlikely that Obama has more money on hand than Romney; and unless Obama stopped spending more money than he took in in July (Romney did spend more money than he brought in, for the first time) then Obama probably doesn’t even have $125 million at this point, either. And may I say that it’s marvelous fun to have an opponent who can outspend you for the entire damned campaign? I would suggest that the Democrats try the sensation out for themselves… only they’re about to do so whether they want to, or not.
That’s pretty much it, except a helpful suggestion to people selling products and services to OfA/DNC: go ahead and take a check; just not a post-dated one. And cash it right away.
Well, I guess that this week is going to suck for Barack Obama, too. $71 million to Romney/RNC’s $106 million, apparently:
For the second month in a row, President Barack Obama’s vaunted fundraising operation fell to Mitt Romney’s, as the president was outraised by about $35 million in June.
Obama’s been having a lot of bad weeks lately. Of course, we don’t know the Cash On Hand numbers, yet. And we’re not going to know them for a while yet, because President Burn Rate probably doesn’t really feel like bringing that particular bit of embarrassing campaign detail front and center…
Via @RyanGOP.
Moe Lane
Buzzfeed, May 20th, 2012: “Big Money Dries Up For Obama Campaign”
Donations to President Barack Obama’s reelection campaign declined sharply in April, as many big-dollar contributors hit the legal maximum, a BuzzFeed analysis of Federal Election Commission data shows.
[snip]
Most of Obama’s drop is attributable to a decline in contributions of more than $500, which fell by more than $9 million. Many of Obama’s top donors have already hit the legal $2500 maximum to the campaign, which — along with an apparent failure to recruit a new cadre of wealthy supporters — may account for the decline.
The New York Times reported this morning that the combined raised total for Romney and the RNC was $40.1 million in April, with Romney having $61.4 million in the bank: in comparison, Obama/the DNC raised $43.6 million. Barack Obama’s own cash on hand for April – it was $104.1 million at the end of March – and we probably won’t be told it until the Sunday deadline, or possibly a little later than that. Though, to be fair, Romney and the RNC haven’t submitted their latest fundraising reports to the FEC, either.
Also: while I give points to the NYT for mentioning that this was a significant jump from Romney’s March haul of $12.6 million, they might have kept comparing apples-to-apples and included the RNC’s March fundraising total ($13.7 million). Or noted that the Democrats’ $43.6 million number for April represents a drop from March’s $53 million. Then again, I suppose that there’s a narrative in place. Continue reading Romney/RNC almost catches up with Obama/DNC in April.
Well, the 3rd quarter is over, which means that the set of speculation over various and sundry people’s fundraising totals may now kick into high gear. Probably the most anticipated numbers will be coming from Obama for America (OfA), given their haul last time – and their brags this time. The Politico has started off with an eye-grabbing headline – “Obama 3Q haul: $55M or more?” (H/T: Hot Air)- which is at least something that we can use to start looking at numbers. And write elaborate posts about them, for that matter.
Let’s go with the traditional bullet points on what needs to be taken into account at this stage of fundraising reporting. Continue reading A Primer for the 3Q Obama for America (OfA) numbers.
…and, oddly, it’s not bigger news:
As political rancor reached a crescendo over the debt limit crisis heading into the August Congressional recess, would-be Democratic donors seem to have been left with a bad taste in their mouths. Figures released Tuesday night show the Democratic National Committee making its poorest fundraising showing in months.
The $5.4 million raised by the main fundraising arm of the Democratic Party in August was overwhelmed by the more than $8 million raised by the Republican National Committee. The DNC’s haul was far lower than the $12 million it raised in June and the $7 million it raised in July.
Probably because, thanks to the Supreme Court’s landmark – and very belated – free speech reform decision (Citizens United v. FEC), worries about the parties having enough money to properly promote candidates have been fairly drastically muted. Which means that while this news is of course welcome, it’s does not really have the connotations of being part of a life-or-death struggle that it would have in 2008…
Moe Lane
(Via Instapundit) That’s the rather bombshell allegation being made today; the gist is that Rodney Young (a retiring psychologist for the Department of Juvenile Justice has reported that his colleagues were the target of an attempt to extort $500 contributions to Steve Beshear’s re-election campaign, with the threat that they could lose their jobs if they did not so contribute. The major argument against this happening is that it would be EXTREMELY STUPID of anyone affiliated with the Governor to make this kind of threat; particularly considering the video found below.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PPIhLVO0C-o&feature=channel_video_title
For those without video access, that’s Steve Beshear promising that accountability begins at the top, and that he’s expecting all of his top staffers will be trained in ethics.
Well. All right, then. Continue reading Is Gov. Steve Beshear (D, KY) extorting campaign contributions?
Alternate title: The Silence of the Unicorns.
Politico wrote an entertaining enough article on the way that Obama’s 2008 bundlers aren’t going to be Obama’s 2012 bundlers, for various and sundry reasons (including a certain disillusionment with the President); but they made one big howler in the third paragraph: “Campaign officials deny that there’s any “enthusiasm gap,” and indeed the new operation appears to be on track to raise as much money as Obama did in his record-setting 2008 campaign.” If you click the link, it’s to an older Politico article that gives a number of $86 million for Obama’s second quarter fundraising. Jim Geraghty goes off on this being representative of the President being on track: if trends continue Jim calculates that “[Obama] will raise $602 million, significantly less than the $750 million he raised in the 2008 cycle.”
But even that’s not true. The real number – the one that you have to use if you want to compare it to the $750 million total from the 2008 election cycle – was more around 47 million (the rest represents the DNC). Punch those numbers in (and assume equal distribution*) and Obama is currently looking at a $375 million dollar haul. That number will change – if for no other reason than the President’s total-to-date reflects a later absolute starting date this cycle, compared to the last cycle**8 – but for right now he’s in the hole.
Moe Lane
*A counter-argument at this point is that the President is going to replicate the flow of his fundraising – which is to say: 14% of his total will occur in the first year, and the remainder in the second. With that metric: if it happens, then he is barely going to come within spitting distance of $750 million (note that Politico would then be correct by accident, given that they’re conflating DNC money with OfA money in their original post). To which I laconically reply: if.
**While simultaneously being an extremely early starting date for an incumbent. Welcome to politics: here’s your accordion.
Yes, I can read. I can count and use a spreadsheet, too. That’s why I’m saying it was a bad quarter.
Executive summary: Obama for America’s (OfA) reported fundraising total for the second quarter is significantly less than what it needed to be in order to hit OfA’s stated ultimate fundraising goals for 2012 – as in, one half to one-third of what they need. And OfA is (grimly) aware of this, which is why they significantly downplayed their fundraising totals in their latest video, despite the fact that in raw terms the amount raised by OfA (47 million) looked highly respectable. Which they were: just not respectable enough.
First off, all numbers here assume a raw total of forty seven million, which is what is being reported in the media* as Obama for America’s take (as the below should make clear the DNC’s numbers should not be taken into consideration when assessing the President’s fundraising goal**). Now that this has been noted… OK, let’s walk through some numbers, here. Below the fold is a chart showing the amount of money that Obama for America raised in the 2008 election cycle. The links are all to official reports filed with the Federal Elections Commission, so I certainly hope that they’re accurate: Continue reading Obama’s bad fundraising quarter.
