Mourners, omit flowers.
“Republicans cannot defeat Democratic incumbent Senators.” This was, in some ways, the single most obnoxious meme that Democrats promulgated in the last two, three election cycles, largely because it was based on an unusually facetious argument. Basically, the idea was that Democrats had a skill set and resources that made their incumbent Senators bulletproof; there was no way that a Republican should challenge one, so the best hope the GOP had was to wait until a Democrat died or retired or something. This was, of course, flaming nonsense on stilts, for three reasons:
- The 2010 election. Blanche Lincoln and Russ Feingold both got defeated, the latter in a state that had looked (up to that point, at least) like it was getting steadily bluer and bluer. If Byron Dorgan and Evan Bayh hadn’t retired, they would have had the same problem.
- Retirements in general, in fact. What the meme carefully doesn’t take into account are places like Nebraska, where Ben Nelson retired rather than lose; or Senators like Chris Dodd, who was more or less forced to retire in 2010 in order to save his Connecticut seat. And we might have gotten Virginia and Wisconsin in 2012 if Jim Webb and Herb Kohl had decided to fight it out, at that.
- It was always just Senators, for some reason. The trick apparently didn’t work for incumbent Democratic governors, or statewide elected officials. And nobody ever stopped for a moment and asked themselves “Why is that?”
Continue reading RIP: ‘Republicans cannot defeat Democratic incumbent Senators.’
I honestly and truly do not like to tell people that the best thing that they can do for the Republic is not to vote.
…if Joe Biden’s argument here swayed you – if the thought that Mitt Romney, if elected, would try to:
- Reverse our withdrawal of troops from Iraq (there’s a heck of a lot of people in ISIS-held territory that wish we were still there);
- Stop using a fixed timetable for our withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan (I believe that ISIS has shown us all why that’s a bad idea);
- Engage in combat in Syria (note that Joe Biden assumed that we’d be fighting the fascists there, not giving them [and the theocrats in Iran] tacit assistance);
- And confront Russia (who is merrily pushing everywhere they can, right now)
– and you thought that this was all a bad thing; then I will submit to you that in voting for Obama-Biden you made the single most foolish, uninformed, and downright dangerous Presidential vote that you are likely to make in your life. And while I absolutely respect the right of you to exercise your franchise – better men and women than either you or I died to protect that right – it is my humble request that you refrain from damaging the country that we both love in the future. I have kids, you see. I don’t want to see them worse off than I was, at their age.
Moe Lane (crosspost)
Let’s see what shiny object the Obama administration comes up with TODAY to try to distract people from both of those inconvenient truths. I’m betting Full Metal Mormonism: nothing like a little casual religious bigotry to keep up the Online Left’s spirits as the hammer continues to descend.
Moe Lane (crosspost) Continue reading Election in twelve days! The economy is awful! (And CNN is ripping Obama!)
$22 million gross sales; looking to hit at least #2 in political documentaries.
As I think that I’ve noted before, I’m not really planning to see the movie; I just don’t like political documentaries, or indeed most genres that don’t involve Jerry Bruckheimer*. But don’t let my parochial worldview stop you. If for no other reason than because Al Gore’s ‘documentary’ being surpassed will cause the weeping and wailing and gnashing of teeth.
*I am not ashamed. This is who I am. I like explosions and big starships and magical fireballs and slo-mo martial arts badassery and gun fu and bad jokes and car chases and superheros throwing other superheros through buildings and all the rest of it.
So, via Jammie Wearing Fools comes this refreshing article where members of the Media whine about how awful this Presidential campaign is, and how they hate everything about it. So why is it refreshing? Well, aside from Jeff Emanuel’s take on the subject, you should also look at sample articles written by the people who were quoted and/or referenced in it: Continue reading Politico: We hate politics! …Especially now, since it looks like we’re losing.
So, to review the bidding: when Romney picked Ryan, Establishment Democrats (and their liberal lackeys) cackled in response that the GOP would now have to hide from the entire state of Florida, thanks to Mediscare. No way that they were going to go all-in, there.
Yeah, about that?
Continue reading -A tale of two campaigns: contrasting Romney-Ryan’s access with Obama-Biden’s.
He says that it’s not likely to happen, and I agree.
One might have expected that two years after Republicans picked up 63 House seats—the biggest gain in a midterm election since 1938—Democrats would be on track to win back a boatload of those districts that the GOP didn’t have much business winning in the first place. But a little more than four months out from the election, the tides seem about as neutral as they can be. Both parties have surprisingly comparable levels of exposure, largely because of redistricting. The relatively calm surface of this year’s waters belies a lot of offsetting tumult and change underneath. But for House Republicans, who hold a 25-seat majority, a status quo election producing minimal net change would be good news.
I’ve been doing this since 2002; 2006 was probably my first real pay-attention-to-Congress election. I’ve seen three wave elections, increasingly from the inside. This… does not feel like one. It feels like what Charlie said: the waters are still. Continue reading #rsrh Charlie Cook’s Cold Water on Fourth Wave Election Hopes/Fears.
The New York Times reported this morning that the combined raised total for Romney and the RNC was $40.1 million in April, with Romney having $61.4 million in the bank: in comparison, Obama/the DNC raised $43.6 million. Barack Obama’s own cash on hand for April – it was $104.1 million at the end of March – and we probably won’t be told it until the Sunday deadline, or possibly a little later than that. Though, to be fair, Romney and the RNC haven’t submitted their latest fundraising reports to the FEC, either.
Also: while I give points to the NYT for mentioning that this was a significant jump from Romney’s March haul of $12.6 million, they might have kept comparing apples-to-apples and included the RNC’s March fundraising total ($13.7 million). Or noted that the Democrats’ $43.6 million number for April represents a drop from March’s $53 million. Then again, I suppose that there’s a narrative in place. Continue reading Romney/RNC almost catches up with Obama/DNC in April.
It’s funny, really. Somebody like Mark Halperin sees this:
Barack Obama’s decision to base his re-election campaign outside of Washington seems to be working pretty darn well. The campaign’s massive, high-rise headquarters in Chicago’s Loop achieves a fine balance between 2008’s hip-casual dorm room (there’s a Ping-Pong table and cheeky homemade signage) and 2012’s systematized Death Star (there are more employees than I have ever seen in a political campaign, with work stations subdivided as ever more employees are added). The place hums from early morning until late at night, designed for maximum efficiency and manifest focus.
and thinks “Success!” I see it and think “High burn rate.” Also: “Hubris.” Let’s talk about why.
Continue reading Election 2012: The long, slow retreat of Obama for America.