Tag: gallup

Gallup: SHUT UP ABOUT HEALTHCARE, DEMOCRATS.

I paraphrase.

Unemployment now stands alone as the top issue in Gallup’s latest update on the most important problem facing the country. Thirty-one percent of Americans mention jobs or unemployment, significantly more than say the economy in general (24%), healthcare (20%), or dissatisfaction with government (10%).

Via Hot Air.  If you’re wondering why the current ruling party is so determined to immolate its reputation, popular support, and future ability to pursue its policy goals on a Quixotic quest that the voting public doesn’t even support… well, it’s because the Democratic party at this point doesn’t know what else to do.  They’ve told themselves so many times that they are the champions of the public good – and that members of the opposing party are agents of Satan – that they are incapable of really understanding that a majority of the population would rather see some – any! – movement on jobs and the economy.  The Democratic leadership truly believe that their map has become the territory.  The Democratic rank-and-file (especially the ones in at-risk districts, which I am defining as “D+4 and better” these days) are not as subject to that particular delusion; which is why the head of the DCCC is telling them to shut up and hide until the vote is over.  Mind you, that’s to protect the leadership from the consequences of a no vote, not to protect the rank-and-file from the consequences of a yes vote.

Nothing will protect the rank-and-file from the consequences of a yes vote.

Moe Lane

Crossposted to RedState.

‘When Democrats Turn.’

Well, everybody’s turning – Congress is at 18/78 approval/disapproval, which makes you wonder about the four percent who can’t make up their minds – but the Democrats have gone from 45% to 30% in a month, which … well, is this not a pretty graph?

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Particularly that 15 point drop among Democrats, which is not so much a drop as a ‘dive.’  Unfortunately, the nature of graphs such as these cannot convey a sense of a tumbling, end-over-end, unpowered fall; not that I’m suggesting that anything happened in the last month that might have caused a catastrophic engine failure for the Democratic party.

Moe Lane

PS: For those Democrats wondering why no-one in their party leadership doesn’t seem to want to embrace this as evidence that Congressional Democrats should embrace the President’s agenda… look at the graph of independent support.  It’s been eroding over the last year… and started to steadily erode once the Democrats acquired their super-majority in July 2009.  For many Congressional Democrats, this is the only job that they’ve ever known; they get twitchy when people suggest strategies that might end up forcing them to actually have to work for a living.

Crossposted to RedState.

Independents more unhappy with Congress than Republicans.

Far too soon for DOOMWATCH, but one year in you don’t want to see this kind of reaction if you’re a Democrat:

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Short version: both Democratic and Republican voters are happier with Congress these days, and Independents are not. The uptick for the first two is easy enough to explain: both side’s partisans are happy that their respective sides are slugging it out. The question is, which side are the folks in the middle supporting?

Well…

The new 2009 low in approval from independents comes at a time when a majority of registered independents say they would likely vote Republican rather than Democratic, 52% to 30%, if elections for Congress were held today. With Republicans and Democrats exhibiting the same degree of loyalty to their parties’ candidates, independents’ preference for Republicans gives that party a 48% to 44% edge over Democrats among registered voters overall.

…it’s not really a question, is it?  Although I imagine that a lot of people are going to be doing their best to suggest that it is.

Moe Lane

Crossposted to RedState.

Gallup: R+4 on the Generic Congressional Ballot.

Yes. Gallup.

(Via AoSHQ) Shift of eight points since July, which for Gallup represents the GOP ‘edging ahead.’ The current numbers are GOP/Democrats 48/44.  And 52/30 among independents.  And this represents registered voters, not likely ones.  Gallup tried to caveat this one every way that it could, but has to conclude:

Since Gallup regularly began using the generic ballot to measure registered voters’ preferences for the House of Representatives in 1950, it has been rare for Republicans to have an advantage over Democrats. This is likely because more Americans usually identify as Democrats than as Republicans, but Republicans can offset this typical Democratic advantage in preferences with greater turnout on Election Day. Most of the prior Republican registered-voter leads on the generic ballot in Gallup polling occurred in 1994 and 2002, two strong years for the GOP.

Particularly interesting is this amusing graph:

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…and yes: the Democratic line does look uncannily like the trajectory of an airplane just after it has lost all power to the engines, mid-flight.  A real shame that this didn’t come out last Friday, huh?  There’s a bunch of Blue Dogs who probably would have appreciated the opportunity to factor this information into their long-term voting strategies.

Moe Lane

Crossposted to RedState.

61% of Americans un-American?

[UPDATE] Welcome, Instapundit readers.

At least, that’s the impression you’d be left with if you were the sort to take seriously everybody who upset that not everybody was signed off on the POTUS Peace Nobel thing.  Luckily, taking them seriously is still a minority opinion in this country:

Most Americans do not believe President Obama should have won the Nobel Peace Prize, and are divided on whether the award is a good thing, according to a new USA TODAY/Gallup Poll.

Sixty-one percent of respondents said Obama did not deserve to win the prize announced on Oct. 9, according to the poll; 34% said he did deserve the honor.

When asked if they were personally glad that Obama won the award, 46% said they were and 47% said they were not glad.

Via the Examiner, via AoSHQ Headlines – but not via Gallup, which has unaccountably not referenced the poll on the front page as of this writing. Perhaps they were just in a hurry this morning.

Moe Lane

Crossposted to RedState.

The DOOM that came from Gallup.

Given in a polite, understated, terribly-sorry-to-bother-you sort of way:

Parties Nearly Tied for Congress in 2010

PRINCETON, NJ — Roughly a year before the 2010 midterm elections, Gallup finds the Republican and Democratic Parties nearly tied in the congressional ballot preferences of registered voters. Forty-six percent of registered voters say they would vote for the Democrat and 44% say the Republican when asked which party’s candidate they would support for Congress, if the election were held today.

The interesting part of this article is in what it lacks: to wit, any good news for Democrats. Gallup pointed out the registered/likely voter differential, the fact that historical trends are arguing for serious Republican gains next year if this keeps up, and even that the public despises the job that Congress is doing (which also is notably lacking in good news for Democrats, although it tries to give a little).  No doubt there will be people out there that will try to explain why all of this shows how horrible things are for the GOP right now; which is fine.  We all need more comedy in our lives.

Moe Lane

Crossposted to RedState.

Gallup mutters about relationship between Dow, approval ratings.

Clearly in reference to Jim Cramer’s I’ve-been-saving-this-for-months revenge clip* of a few days ago, the Gallup organization would like you to know that there’s no historical relationship between a President’s approval rating and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

None at all.

Absolutely zero.

Mind you, that wasn’t the argument that got made – Cramer was arguing that this specific President’s disapproval ratings (via Gallup!) were being reflected in the S&P 500 going up – but nonetheless, Gallup felt the need to do that analysis.

Well.  Thanks for letting us know.

Moe Lane

PS: Yes, I see the large holes in Cramer’s theory.  So does Cramer, probably.  It’s still funny that Gallup felt the need to do some repair work here. Clumsily. Continue reading Gallup mutters about relationship between Dow, approval ratings.

I’d like to introduce these two approval rating polls to each other.

[UPDATE]: Welcome, Hot Air readers. May I suggest this Gibbs video? It’s translated!

Gallup, meet Rasmussen.

Rasmussen, Gallup.

I believe that you two have something in common*.

Crossposted to RedState. Continue reading I’d like to introduce these two approval rating polls to each other.

Obama’s budget media blitz ineffective?

Well, that may be unfair: as Andrew Malcolm notes, if Obama hadn’t spent the last month trying to convince people that his 3.6 trillion dollar budget was a good idea it might have slipped even further than the recent Gallup poll shows that it has. Which means that he’s saved or created – what? Five, six points on the polls?

Looking at the poll itself, it’s interesting to see how an outside-the-margin of error result can be framed as ‘holding steady.’ 46/26/30 for/against/don’t know enough last month versus 39/27/33 this month, and support for it has slipped down the Republican/Democratic/Independent line. Although possibly the most embarrassing part of this whole thing for the administration is that the aforementioned media blitz – personal, online, televised, radioed, phone called, and for all I know, messenger pigeoned – didn’t have a better than a margin-of-error effect on the American public’s awareness of the issue. Admittedly, they were already pretty aware, but the Obama administration was looking for a win here, not a no-decision.
Continue reading Obama’s budget media blitz ineffective?