Pollster hammers in some nails to the R2000 coffin.

Much as I’d like the dKos/R2000 dustup to be the metaphorical equivalent of this, Mark Blumenthal’s comments here suggest that Research 2000 is, well, toast.

By far the most troubling part of [Research 2000 president Del] Ali’s response comes in these two sentences (left in their original form including typographical errors):

Regardless though. to you so-called polling experts, each sub grouping, gender, race, party ID, etc must equal the top line number or come pretty darn close. Yes we weight heavily and I will, using te margin of error adjust the top line and when adjusted under my discretion as both a pollster and social scientist, therefore all sub groups must be adjusted as well.

“Top line” in this context means the results for the full sample rather than a subgroup, but it still unclear exactly which “top line numbers” Ali is referring to. If he means the results of attitude questions — vote preference horse-race numbers, favorable ratings, issue questions or possibly even the party identification question — he comes close to admitting a practice that every pollster I know would consider deceptive and unethical. “Scientific” political surveys are supposed to provide objective measurements of attitudes and preferences. As such pollsters and social scientists never have the “discretion” to simply “adjust” the substantive results of their surveys, within the margin of error or otherwise. As a pollster friend put it in an email he sent me a few minutes after reading Ali’s statement: “That’s not polling. It’s Jeanne Dixon polling.”

Continue reading Pollster hammers in some nails to the R2000 coffin.

Alexi Giannoulias (D), call your office.

I understand that the man is desperate to escape to Washington, DC – but the bills are piling up.  And I am not being figurative in the slightest:

Even by the standards of this deficit-ridden state, Illinois’s comptroller, Daniel W. Hynes, faces an ugly balance sheet. Precisely how ugly becomes clear when he beckons you into his office to examine his daily briefing memo.

He picks the papers off his desk and points to a figure in red: $5.01 billion.

“This is what the state owes right now to schools, rehabilitation centers, child care, the state university – and it’s getting worse every single day,” he says in his downtown office.

Mr. Hynes shakes his head. “This is not some esoteric budget issue; we are not paying bills for absolutely essential services,” he says. “That is obscene.”

Continue reading Alexi Giannoulias (D), call your office.

#rsrh Obamaspill Schism?

For once, Anderson Cooper gets it more or less right that when it comes to Obamaspill when he notes that the regular media is not the enemy.

To this administration, the regular media are instead vile and impious heretics, and if they do not like being told that they may not get within 65 feet of any direct evidence of the federal government’s failure to master the spill, well… perhaps they should consider themselves fortunate.  Another age would have them be the centerpiece to an auto de fe for their obstinacy. Continue reading #rsrh Obamaspill Schism?

Crazed Sex Poodle update.

This week was the calm before the storm: they’ve reopened the case, possibly because there may be DNA evidence on a pair of pants, and possibly because it looks bad when there’s even a suggestion that the rich and powerful can count on sexual assault allegations… going away.  Meanwhile, via Instapundit, Politico is reporting that the story is going mainstream in the national media.  Hillbuzz notes that, more importantly, it’s hitting entertainment sources like EW and People.  Why is that more important? Let them explain:

Here’s something we keep telling just about every conservative we ever meet, but none of them seem to listen:  the entertainment industry matters because more people read People, Entertainment Weekly, Perez Hilton, Deadline Hollywood Daily, Aint It Cool News, Dark Horizons, and other entertainment sites than read many of the political sites combined.

Continue reading Crazed Sex Poodle update.