Oct
01
2011
3

A Primer for the 3Q Obama for America (OfA) numbers.

Well, the 3rd quarter is over, which means that the set of speculation over various and sundry people’s fundraising totals may now kick into high gear.  Probably the most anticipated numbers will be coming from Obama for America (OfA), given their haul last time – and their brags this time.  The Politico has started off with an eye-grabbing headline – “Obama 3Q haul: $55M or more?” (H/T: Hot Air)- which is at least something that we can use to start looking at numbers.  And write elaborate posts about them, for that matter.

Let’s go with the traditional bullet points on what needs to be taken into account at this stage of fundraising reporting. (more…)

Sep
21
2011
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#rsrh RNC beats DNC in August fundraising.

…and, oddly, it’s not bigger news:

As political rancor reached a crescendo over the debt limit crisis heading into the August Congressional recess, would-be Democratic donors seem to have been left with a bad taste in their mouths. Figures released Tuesday night show the Democratic National Committee making its poorest fundraising showing in months.

The $5.4 million raised by the main fundraising arm of the Democratic Party in August was overwhelmed by the more than $8 million raised by the Republican National Committee. The DNC’s haul was far lower than the $12 million it raised in June and the $7 million it raised in July.

Probably because, thanks to the Supreme Court’s landmark – and very belated – free speech reform decision (Citizens United v. FEC), worries about the parties having enough money to properly promote candidates have been fairly drastically muted.  Which means that while this news is of course welcome, it’s does not really have the connotations of being part of a life-or-death struggle that it would have in 2008…

Moe Lane

Aug
01
2011
2

Is Gov. Steve Beshear (D, KY) extorting campaign contributions?

(Via Instapundit) That’s the rather bombshell allegation being made today; the gist is that Rodney Young (a retiring psychologist for the Department of Juvenile Justice has reported that his colleagues were the target of an attempt to extort $500 contributions to Steve Beshear’s re-election campaign, with the threat that they could lose their jobs if they did not so contribute. The major argument against this happening is that it would be EXTREMELY STUPID of anyone affiliated with the Governor to make this kind of threat; particularly considering the video found below.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PPIhLVO0C-o&feature=channel_video_title

For those without video access, that’s Steve Beshear promising that accountability begins at the top, and that he’s expecting all of his top staffers will be trained in ethics.

Well. All right, then. (more…)

Jul
21
2011
--

#rsrh Politico’s Obama fundraising myth.

Alternate title: The Silence of the Unicorns.

Politico wrote an entertaining enough article on the way that Obama’s 2008 bundlers aren’t going to be Obama’s 2012 bundlers, for various and sundry reasons (including a certain disillusionment with the President); but they made one big howler in the third paragraph: “Campaign officials deny that there’s any “enthusiasm gap,” and indeed the new operation appears to be on track to raise as much money as Obama did in his record-setting 2008 campaign.”  If you click the link, it’s to an older Politico article that gives a number of $86 million for Obama’s second quarter fundraising. Jim Geraghty goes off on this being representative of the President being on track: if trends continue Jim calculates that “[Obama] will raise $602 million, significantly less than the $750 million he raised in the 2008 cycle.”

But even that’s not true. The real number – the one that you have to use if you want to compare it to the $750 million total from the 2008 election cycle – was more around 47 million (the rest represents the DNC).  Punch those numbers in (and assume equal distribution*) and Obama is currently looking at a $375 million dollar haul.  That number will change – if for no other reason than the President’s total-to-date reflects a later absolute starting date this cycle, compared to the last cycle**8 – but for right now he’s in the hole.

Moe Lane

*A counter-argument at this point is that the President is going to replicate the flow of his fundraising – which is to say: 14% of his total will occur in the first year, and the remainder in the second.  With that metric: if it happens, then he is barely going to come within spitting distance of $750 million (note that Politico would then be correct by accident, given that they’re conflating DNC money with OfA money in their original post).  To which I laconically reply: if.

**While simultaneously being an extremely early starting date for an incumbent.  Welcome to politics: here’s your accordion.

Jul
13
2011
3

Obama’s bad fundraising quarter.

Yes, I can read.  I can count and use a spreadsheet, too.  That’s why I’m saying it was a bad quarter.

Executive summary: Obama for America’s (OfA) reported fundraising total for the second quarter is significantly less than what it needed to be in order to hit OfA’s stated ultimate fundraising goals for 2012 – as in, one half to one-third of what they need.  And OfA is (grimly) aware of this, which is why they significantly downplayed their fundraising totals in their latest video, despite the fact that in raw terms the amount raised by OfA (47 million) looked highly respectable.  Which they were: just not respectable enough.

First off, all numbers here assume a raw total of forty seven million, which is what is being reported in the media* as Obama for America’s take (as the below should make clear the DNC’s numbers should not be taken into consideration when assessing the President’s fundraising goal**).  Now that this has been noted… OK, let’s walk through some numbers, here.  Below the fold is a chart showing the amount of money that Obama for America raised in the 2008 election cycle.  The links are all to official reports filed with the Federal Elections Commission, so I certainly hope that they’re accurate: (more…)

Jun
30
2011
1

#rsrh A head’s-up on the Obama fundraising thing.

I’ve noticed that folks like Jim Geraghty and Legal Insurrection are pointing out that the President’s fund-raising team is currently acting as if they’re absolutely desperate for last-minute contributions to Obama’s reelection campaign.  Like Jim, I’d like to remind folks that back in 2008 the Obama campaign notoriously poor-mouthed its fundraising every month… so don’t be surprised if they try this sort of thing again.  As I’ve noted before, these people aren’t what you’d call real original.  We’ll know in a couple of weeks what the real totals are.

Not that it matters as much this go-round, thanks to the Supreme Court reestablishing some basic free-speech sanity with Citizens United

Apr
09
2010
1

1Q 2010: Crist raises 1.1 million to Rubio’s 3.6.

It’s not your time, Governor.

Via Hot Air: Allahpundit independently makes the same suggestion…

If I were Crist, here’s what I’d do. First, I’d dial up Jeb Bush and ask him whether there’s any chance whatsoever that he’ll endorse me. If he says no (which seems likely), either because he’s backing Rubio or staying out of the race, then I’d dial up Rubio and offer him a deal. In return for me dropping out right now, endorsing him, and helping him fundraise, I’d ask for a commitment that he’ll help me beat Bill Nelson in 2012. That’s really the only way at this point that Crist can regain his standing among the base, whom he’ll need to have onboard for any shot at the Senate.

…that I did last month, only I didn’t bother with suggesting that Crist give Jeb an opportunity to bail him out.  It’s not too late, Governor: you still have something to trade.  We don’t have to let this situation deteriorate further.

But the clock’s ticking.

Moe Lane

Crossposted to RedState.

Mar
28
2010
--

How to put together a audio/video interview rig.

Moelane.com – and RedState.com – resident computer guy Neil Stevens has a post up on the audio interview rig he put together as part of a weekend fundraising reaction to this post. Interesting stuff; check it out.

Moe Lane

Mar
21
2010
4

Reviewing the February 2010 Fundraising numbers.

Well, well, well. Short version? All three Republican national committees raised more than their Democratic counterparts for the first time in… well, a while.

A while.

Raised CoH Debts
RNC 7.69 9.46 0.00
DNC 7.42 10.74 3.72
NRSC 4.60 12.86 0.00
DSCC 4.00 14.30 0.42
NRCC 5.08 6.06 0.00
DCCC 4.35 19.82 0.67
GOP 17.37 28.38 0.00
Dem 15.77 44.86 4.81

(more…)

Mar
09
2010
5

The ‘Buy Moe DA:O Awakenings’ Cheeky Fundraising Post.

Having just pointed out a worthy MoeLane.com-related cause to throw money at, allow me to suggest a more or less unworthy one: to wit, making it possible for me to acquire Dragon Age: Origins Awakening with all indecent speed. It’s now on the Wish List, and the button below will go to my own (unworthy) bank account.

Hey, what do you want me to do? Lie?





Mar
09
2010
2

The ‘Support the Webhost’ Fundraising Post.

As you may or may not be aware, MoeLane.com is hosted by fellow-RS Contributor and all-around swell guy Neil Stevens, who covers the costs per month for bandwidth and whatnot himself. We could use more advertising revenue, frankly – we could use any advertising revenue, frankly – but in the meantime; if you were thinking of supporting the site via contributions the link below will go to defray monthly costs for the site.





Feb
24
2010
3

Reviewing the January 2010 fundraising numbers.

The combination of CPAC and a reduced feeling of urgency delayed this for a couple of days, but here are the numbers for January.  Short version: RNC over DNC, effective ties (as in, less than 10K/20K differences ) for the Congressional and Senatorial committees, and the Democrats retain their cash-on-hand advantage.

Raised CoH Debts
RNC 10.53 9.48 0.00
DNC 9.19 10.20 4.68
NRSC 5.01 10.65 0.00
DSCC 5.10 13.00 0.83
NRCC 4.50 4.13 0.00
DCCC 4.69 18.32 1.33
GOP 20.04 24.26 0.00
Dem 18.98 41.52 6.84

(more…)

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