Tag: new jersey

PPP: maybe DON’T GOTV for Corzine?

At least, that’s the impression that I’m getting from this PPP blog entry:

The voters under 30 in New Jersey in our latest poll reported voting for Obama 56-36 last year. But they support Corzine just 42-40 over Chris Christie this fall with 13% going to Chris Daggett.

In fact, in general I’m getting the impression that PPP is quietly operating from the expectation that Corzine will lose under current circumstances, and is trying to find some way of writing that without starting a self-fulfilling prophecy panic.  Meanwhile, Q-Pac is saying Corzine +5; reconciling that number with them having Christie win independents 45/30 is left as an exercise for the interested student (see Geraghty for more along those lines).  And, as usual, the uncertainty about the percentage of the vote going to Daggett is driving all the pollsters mad.

Moe Lane

PS: Chris Christie for Governor.

Crossposted to RedState.

NJ-GOV: New PPP, Rasmussen polls out.

And if you thought that yesterday’s semi-cryptic blog post from the former was just some prepare-the-Democrats-for-some-bad-news, and not an attempt to raise Republican hopes… well, you were right.

Chris Christie now leads Jon Corzine 42-38 in the race to be New Jersey’s next Governor, a slight increase from our poll two weeks that showed his advantage at 40-39.

In other words, the partisan Democratic polling firm is reporting that the race has shifted in Christie’s direction by three points, and now has a lead barely out of the MoE. Rasmussen likewise reports that Christie has increased his lead to 46/43, with Daggett at 7%, which is down four from last week.  But here’s what may be the important part of that report:

Christie leads by eight points among those who are certain they will show up and vote. A week ago, he was up by five among that group. Christie’s supporters are also less likely to say they might consider voting for someone else.

A week to go. Word is that Quinnipiac will have out something later this week; in the meantime, expect New Jersey to get inundated with even more campaign advertising and national scrutiny .

Moe Lane

PS: Christie for Governor.

Crossposted to RedState.

I know that ‘Candidates swing away in final debate’ (NJ)…

…may make for an interesting headline; but I have a possibly more accurate one.

Supporters face off

An hour before the debate, crowds of Christie and Daggett supporters faced off in front of the studios, yelling taunts from opposite sides of the street and separated by cars.

“Sinking ship! Sinking ship!” chanted the Daggett fans, a reference to Christie’s slippage in the polls.

“We can’t hear you! We can’t hear you!” answered the Christie squad, which outnumbered Daggett’s group about 4-to-1.

It’s “Jon Corzine can’t draw a crowd.”

Moe Lane

PS: Christie for Governor.

PPS: A comment from Democratic Christie supporter Councilwoman Tana Raymond, on Corzine’s ties to convicted Bergen County Democratic chair Joseph Ferriero:

“For years, Jon Corzine facilitated the corrupt leadership of Joseph Ferriero at the Bergen County Democratic Organization with hundreds of thousands of dollars in financial contributions. Even as Corzine preached ethics reform in public, his actions enabled the corrupt status quo and completely contradicted his words. It’s ridiculous for the governor to attempt to play off his financial contributions to Ferriero as something other than what they actually were – Corzine looking the other way in the face of corruption for his own political benefit.”

NJ/VA Palin-less?

(Via Hot Air) The Democrats in this Politico piece about former Gov. Palin and the VA/NJ races are spouting nonsense about her long term appeal, of course* – they’re aware as I am that she’s going to be very much in demand in Congressional races where the Democratic incumbent is holding down a seat in a district that McCain or Bush won.  Of which there are quite a few; but Democratic strategists can perhaps not be blamed for not wanting to say something along the lines of ‘Well, THAT WOMAN is going to go through all those Southern/Western Blue-on-Red districts like a buzz-saw, so you might as well get used to it.’  The people who need to hear that most will want to hear it least.

That being said, I don’t expect her to participate in the NJ gubernatorial election, although VA’s may yet still see a presence if the McDonnell campaign goes sour.  Virginia’s at best lightly purple, even now; New Jersey’s pretty definitely blue.  Christie doesn’t have a margin for taking chances right now.

Moe Lane

*As might be perhaps witnessed by interest in her book, which is currently at #3 on Amazon after spending over a week at #1. And that was individual pre-order.

Crossposted to RedState.

[Insert Torricelli-themed pun involving Corzine rumor here.]

RedState colleague Mark Impomeni reports that New Jersey Democrats may be contemplating putting the Torch to Corzine’s campaign:

It could be déjà vu all over again in New Jersey, as rumors percolate that Democrats may force incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine off the November ballot if his poll numbers do not improve quickly. Corzine, a former United States Senator and first-term governor, trails Republican challenger Christopher Christie by nearly double-digits in aggregate polling in the governor’s race and has not enjoyed a lead over Christie in any poll since early January.

The Corzine campaign denies that the governor would consider dropping out, calling talk of a replacement “gossip.”

Why this is not generally considered to be enough to squash that particular rumor is because, of course, New Jersey Democrats did this back when Torricelli was ‘persuaded’ to drop out of the Senate race and replaced in a manner that I would call illegal, but unfortunately the NJ Supreme Court did not. This time around, talk centers around either Rep Pallone or Sen Menendez (although the latter may be reluctant to do so, particularly considering how many of his Bergen County Democratic friends are currently up on corruption charges). The clock’s ticking on this one, as Mark notes: the closer it gets to November, the harder it gets for the Democrats to toss Corzine.

The complicating factor here is that Corzine’s major problem is that he’s loathed by NJ voters for his job performance; unless there’s a convenient revelation of major criminal shenanigans on Corzine’s part, he is going to want to bull his way through and hope that he can narrow the race. And he did win the primary; if NJ Democrats get a name for setting aside the results of their primaries every time the winner ends up polling badly, it becomes a fair question to ask why the party even has them…

Moe Lane

PS: Chris Christie for Governor. Contribute here.

Crossposted to RedState.

Hmm. Meet Mike Halfacre (R Cand, NJ-12).

(H/T: Instapundit) This one is speculative: while NJ-12 is only D+5, its incumbent is Rush Holt, who has held the seat for ten years now, with election margins in the 60s.  On the other hand, that’s also enough time to get sloppy; he’s a good bit more liberal than you’d expect from somebody in a D+5 seat; and if this report is correct he’s not handling well being on the other side from actual populists.

So… here’s Mike Halfacre.  Mayor of Fair Haven, running on fiscal responsibility (has lowered property taxes and reduced debt as Mayor), frankly looks better than Holt did with regard to access at Holt’s own town hall.  This isn’t my old district when I was living in NJ, but I know the area: it’s not infertile ground for Republicans.  The fact that he’s pro-choice will be a deal-breaker for some people reading this, which is of course their privilege.

If it’s not a deal-breaker, keep an eye on this one.  It may prove interesting.

Moe Lane

Crossposted to RedState.

Update on Hudson County Democratic Party Organlegging Arrests.

Some details from the story (covered here and here):

  • Yes, in fact: there was trafficking in human organs involved.  At least one individual has been brought up on charges of attempting to sell a liver.
  • The list of individuals and charges can be found here: we’re looking at conspiracy to commit extortion, money laundering, and again, at least one charge in trafficking in human organs.  There are at least two Republicans on the list; but the Hudson County Democratic Party organizational chart is probably going to end up looking like there was a sudden outbreak of the bubonic plague.
  • There is currently no indication that Governor Corzine was aware that numerous Democratic officials were allegedly involved in any conspiracy to commit extortion, money laundering, and/or trafficking in human organs.  He apparently missed it completely.
  • The FBI raided Community Affairs Commissioner (and NJ Cabinet member) Joseph Doria’s office, presumably in relation to their investigation of conspiracy to commit extortion, money laundering, and/or trafficking in human organs charges; Doria has resigned.
  • Gubernatorial candidate Chris Christie (R) is also involved in this up to his eyeballs; in the sense that he was the one that started the investigation two years ago as a… I believe the term is, ‘crusading US Attorney.’
  • An attempt to get a statement from Senator Robert Menendez (D, NJ), Hudson County Democrat and chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, was unsuccessful.  There has been no press release and/or statement made at the time that this post was written.

And that’s how it stands at the moment.

Moe Lane

Crossposted to RedState.

Breaking: Hudson County (NJ) Democratic Party arrested.

Or so it seems. We’re having difficulty keeping up.

UPDATE: OK, more information:

2 N.J. Mayors Arrested in Broad Inquiry on Corruption

The mayors of Hoboken and Secaucus, a state assemblyman and dozens of others were rounded up early Thursday as the F.B.I. swept across four counties in New Jersey as part of a two-year corruption and money-laundering investigation that ranged from the Jersey Shore to Brooklyn and has even reached into the State House in Trenton.

Agents raided the home of Joseph V. Doria Jr., commissioner of the state Department of Community Affairs, who also is the former mayor of Bayonne, an official confirmed Thursday morning.

Among the roughly 30 people arrested by mid-morning were Hoboken Mayor Peter J. Cammarano III and Secaucus Mayor Dennis Elwell, both Democrats, and Assemblyman Daniel M. Van Pelt, a Republican from Forked River, in Ocean County. Mr. Cammarano, who turned 32 on Wednesday, was elected mayor June 9 and sworn in July 1, after serving as councilman-at-large since 2005.

I’ve done a spreadsheet of the people named so far – and let me note: there’s something fun about a story where you need to do a spreadsheet in order to keep up with this sort of thing.

Name Occupation Democrat
Peter Cammarano Mayor of Hoboken Yes
Dennis Elwell Mayor of Secaucus Yes
Leona Beldini Dep Mayor of Jersey City Yes
Mariano Vega Council President, Jersey City Yes
La Vern Webb-Washington Council Candidate, Jersey City Yes*
Michael Manzo Fire Department, Jersey City No**
Daniel Van Pelt New Jersey Assemblyman No
*Ran as independent.
**Ran as independent.

There’s going to be a press conference at noon, and it should be riveting.

Moe Lane

PS: You know who else is from Hudson County? Senator Robert Menendez.

Crossposted to RedState.

NJ Gubernatorial polls.

The two new ones:

It looks like the President’s emergency visit to New Jersey accomplished little, if anything, to rescue Corzine from his slump.  So is it over?  No, or at least not yet: but…

If you begin to read and hear such things as, “Mr. Obama enthusiastically supports Governor Corzine. He and the vice president have appeared with the governor, but he has no further plans to visit New Jersey.” When or if you hear this, then you know that the game is over.

Moe Lane

PS: Christie for Governor.  Donate here.

Crossposted to RedState.

Jon Corzine (D-NJ) should just do an *actual* Reality TV show.

If he’s seriously considering Randal Pinkett (the guy from Season Four of The Apprentice, apparently) for his running mate, he might as well get a camera crew together and film Who Wants to be a Losing Candidate for Lt. Governor ?  There’s money in Reality TV, as I understand.  I also understand that he kind of needs money right now.

More from Politicker NJ, including this:

So far, there is only one certainty in the race to become Corzine’s running mate: the LG selection process – including an uncomfortable public search for an African American candidate — has become a bit too comical for the comfort of Corzine supporters.  Democrats are giving the impression of desperation; even East Orange Mayor Robert Bowser received a call asking if LG was something he would consider.  He said no.   At this point, new names are being treated with some trepidation.  A trial balloon for former Superior Court Judge Theodore Davis, the state appointed Chief Operating Officer of the City of Camden and a Republican, was viewed as too late to be serious.  Talk of Seton Hall Law Professor Mark Alexander, who ran Obama’s New Jersey campaign in the primary, had a shelf life of just a few minutes.

…and the Daily Record is reporting that insiders aren’t really happy about any of this.  Meanwhile, you can donate to Chris Christie – the guy taking this race seriously – here.

Moe Lane

Crossposted to RedState.