Oct
19
2014
1

If the Clintons were serious about the South, they’d stump in West Virginia.

Let’s just establish something right here, right now:

Self-proclaimed Clinton Democrats are struggling this election cycle, and not even their powerful namesakes may be enough to save them.

Both Bill and Hillary Clinton have tried to turn on their charms to help centrist Democrats in Kentucky and Arkansas. But as candidates in both states are slipping, help from the party’s preeminent power couple is falling short.

…the article goes on to claim that in 2016 Bill and Hillary Clinton may be regional powerhouses in the South anyway.  And that’s something that is completely at odds with the actual truth, which is that the Clintons know full well that they’re not going to make a darn bit of difference in the South. And how do I know that? Easy. They’re going to Kentucky and Arkansas: two states where the Democratic candidate will lose and it won’t actually be the Clintons’ fault.  Both Mark Pryor and Alison Grimes have run poor campaigns against Tom Cotton and Mitch McConnell: there’s no real demographic benefit that Hillary or Bill Clinton could give those two, and pretty much everybody knows it.

(more…)

Oct
18
2014
5

Why Hunter Biden will get away with being thrown out of the Navy for cocaine use.

The more I read about Hunter Biden (VP Joe Biden’s son) cocaine-fueled discharge from the Navy, the more it stinks on ice:

…it is worth noting that, while Biden’s summary discharge occurred last February, it did not become public until the Wall Street Journal revealed the story this week. Biden’s statement about “the honor of my life to serve in the U.S. Navy” — for one month! — was issued through his lawyer.

Evidently there was an effort, successful for eight months, to conceal this curious episode. But while the attempted cover-up is, perhaps, understandable from Vice President Biden’s perspective, the real scandal here is not Hunter Biden’s cocaine use, or his father’s protection of an errant son, but the fact that Hunter Biden was commissioned in the naval reserve in the first place.

Well, it’s a scandal but not a surprise: Vice Presidents, believe it or not, actually have a lot of pull. Even Joe Biden.  Enough to get an unqualified and overaged son a commission, at least; and enough to delay a cocaine scandal. (more…)

Oct
18
2014
1

Quote of the Day, RELYING On The Ground Game Is A Bad Sign edition.

Don’t get me wrong: Barack Obama’s 2008 and 2012 ground game was great – at getting Barack Obama elected, at least – and the Democrats were not shy in confidently claiming that they had converted that success into a more general system that would allow them to retain the Senate and make up lost territory in the states. Which is fine: bragging is one of the pleasures of winning. One must expect it.

This is not bragging.

Democrats are praying their ground game will save them from a crushing defeat in next month’s midterm elections.

This is what you say when ‘crushing defeat’ is something that you aspire to. We’ll see how the early voting goes (check here for a good, balanced look at the running totals), but so far I’m not particularly worried about that.

Oct
16
2014
1

How do you say ‘[bleep] off, suckers!’ in Iowan regional dialect?

Well, Tom Harkin will be happy to show you how.

Despite direct appeals from Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada and other top Democrats, Harkin has refused to transfer money from his $2.4 million campaign account to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, according to sources and campaign finance records.

Instead, the retiring Iowa senator has informed party leaders that he plans to use the campaign funds for a charitable contribution to an entity that bears his name: The Harkin Institute for Public Policy and Citizen Engagement at Drake University in Des Moines, according to sources close to discussions with the senator.

…That may be the funniest thing that I read all day.  No, wait, this is: (more…)

Oct
16
2014
5

Which consultant told Democratic candidates to refuse to say that they voted for Obama?

Because somebody did.

CHARLESTON, WV – Today, during an editorial board meeting with the Charleston Daily Mail, Natalie Tennant refused to say that she voted for President Obama in 2012. “I voted for the Democratic Party,” she said. She also, yet again, refused to say whether she would vote for Harry Reid as Majority Leader if elected to the Senate.

Yeah, I know, doesn’t matter because it’s West Virginia, but still. Somebody told Democratic candidates that they needed to be cowards. Who, and why?

Oct
16
2014
1

Tweet of the Day, Republicans ABSOLUTELY Need To Establish A Travel Ban Position NOW edition.

Can’t add to, or subtract from, this:

…unless it’s to add this: (more…)

Oct
16
2014
2

Michael Barone: Democrats may be unwisely relying on Hispanic vote.

Interesting.

Every party has a bad offyear sometimes; Republicans did in 2006. Sooner or later they recover. But in the crosstabs of polls and in party strategists’ moves I see evidence that one group Democrats have been counting on is moving away from them: Hispanics.

Hispanics voted 71 percent for Barack Obama in 2012, 20 points above his national average of 51 percent. According to Gallup, Hispanics’ latest Obama job approval has sunk to 44 percent, just 3 points above the national average.

You probably haven’t heard much about this because Hispanics are scarce in all but one of the states with serious Senate races this year.

Michael Barone went on to note some potential examples of this dissatisfaction. To begin with, the DCCC has abandoned three challengers (one in Colorado, two in California), all three of whom were considered good pickup opportunities because of large Hispanic populations. There was also the Angela Giron recall election in Colorado’s state Senate: Geron lost her recall despite representing a district that was over 40% Hispanic. Lastly: the poor showing of Wendy Davis in the Texas governor’s race is for many reasons, to be sure… but the fact that she did horribly among Hispanic voters in the primary is probably not one of the least of those reasons.

All in all, there is some argument to be made that Hispanic voters are not nearly as reliable for Democrats as the Democrats would like to think. This is not to say, of course, that the standard Republican gambit – Give them immigration reform / pro-life legislation!* – is actually any better.  I think that what is happening here is that both parties are trying to imagine what Hispanic voters should be collectively interested in, and catering to that: which is admittedly easier than figuring out what those voters are actually interested in, but not necessarily smarter. Or even smart at all, really. After all, in a binary situation like this somebody has to be ‘right:’ but if the party that’s ‘right’ learns the wrong lessons from it, they’ll pay for it pretty quickly next time… and probably then the other party will learn the wrong lessons from that, too.
Oh, well, I guess that it keeps the consultants paid.
Moe Lane
*Depending on who you ask.
Oct
16
2014
1

Mark Udall calls Cory Gardner ‘Senator’ at yesterday’s Colorado debate.

Man. Mark Udall’s internal polling must be awful.

If this election was anything except a fully mail-in ballot election, that would be DOOM right there. Heck, if it was Colorado’s second mail-in ballot election it’d be DOOM.  But between this, yesterday’s absolute disaster of an attempted hit piece against Gardner, and of course the polling… Cory Gardner is nicely in the glide path for winning in two and a half weeks.  There are some things that the margin of fraud* can do nothing for.

But no sense being complacent. Cory Gardner for Senate.

Moe Lane (crosspost)

*I do believe in it; I merely think that the percentages involved are a lot narrower than do many of my colleagues.  I suspect that it is mostly used to make sure that the ‘right’ people win Democratic primaries.  Not as many people looking at those races and in many cases winning the primary = winning the election.

Oct
15
2014
--

…That was an amazingly messed-up partisan own-goal by the Left over Cory Gardner.

Twitchy has the gory details: suffice it to say, Deadspin tried to pitch a story (that Cory Gardner never played high school football) into a game changer for Colorado’s Senate race, and ended up probably guaranteeing Gardner’s election (because Gardner actually played high school football, and has the pictures to prove it).  In the process Deadspin has managed to make at least several dozen Lefty journalists and activists look like chumps, and that promises to keep going on for a little while longer.

Lots of fun, but I should have kept better notes. Or any notes at all.

Moe Lane

Oct
15
2014
1

DCCC chair Steve Israel upset that Democratic groups don’t give money to dead people.

Oh, there’s a certain reputation that clings to the Democrats about their willingness to let dead people vote, but that’s a different power dynamic entirely. This is something else:

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Steve Israel told reporters Wednesday he is “frustrated” that his party’s outside groups have not supported House Democrats on television in the final stretch of the midterms.

Many big Democratic players — such as environmental and labor groups — focused their financial firepower on the Senate, which is in play this cycle. This has caused increased anxiety among House Democrats, who also face losses in 2014.

House Democrats must pick up a net of 17 seats to win control of the House, but it’s increasingly likely the party will lose seats in that chamber this cycle. For the first time, Israel made a public plea to outside groups for their financial help.

(more…)

Oct
15
2014
2

Michelle Nunn cowardly refuses to stand with Barack Obama.

Why is it so difficult for a Democrat to admit that he or she voted for Barack Obama?

That’s a rhetorical question, of course. What’s not rhetorical is the question: will the Democratic party do anything about this?  After all, when Alison Grimes did pretty much the same thing the Democrats cut her loose and left her out to dry. But I suspect that they will not do this to Michelle Nunn, and here’s why… (more…)

Oct
15
2014
9

Crist campaign forced to give back illegal campaign contributions.

And here I thought Charlie Crist was a fundraising machine: “Republicans filed a complaint against Team Crist for “repeated” finance violations. After the complaint was filed, Crist & Co. refunded thousands of dollars to donors who exceeded the legal limit of $3,000.”

…Oops?

Via:

Moe Lane

PS: Rick Scott for Governor.

PPSD: I know, I know: this deserves more attention. I am still not feeling well, sorry.

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